Skip to main content
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Briefing Book
  • Resources
  • About
  • Contact
  • Support
  • Fiscal Facts
Twitter
Facebook
Logo Site
  • Topics
    • Individual Taxes
    • Business Taxes
    • Federal Budget and Economy
    • State and Local Issues
    • Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms
  • TaxVox Blog
  • Research & Commentary
  • Laws & Proposals
  • Model Estimates
  • Statistics
  • Features

The Tax Policy Center's

Briefing Book

A citizen’s guide to the fascinating (though often complex) elements of the US tax system.

Tax Policy Center Briefing Book

Some Background

  • Briefing Book
  • Distribution of Tax Burdens
  • What criticisms are levied against standard distributional analysis?
  • Chapters
    • Introduction
      • Introduction
        • Introduction
    • Some Background
      • Federal Budget
        • What are the sources of revenue for the federal government?
        • How does the federal government spend its money?
        • What is the breakdown of revenues among federal, state, and local governments?
        • How do US taxes compare internationally?
      • Federal Budget Process
        • How does the federal budget process work?
        • What is the history of the federal budget process?
        • What is the schedule for the federal budget process?
        • What is reconciliation?
        • How is a budget resolution enforced?
        • What is PAYGO?
        • What are rescissions?
      • Federal Budget Outlook
        • How accurate are long-run budget projections?
        • What have budget trends been over the short and long term?
        • How much spending is uncontrollable?
        • What are tax extenders?
        • What options would increase federal revenues?
        • What does it mean for a government program to be off-budget?
        • How did the TCJA affect the federal budget outlook?
      • Taxes and the Economy
        • How do taxes affect the economy in the short run?
        • How do taxes affect the economy in the long run?
        • What are dynamic scoring and dynamic analysis?
        • Do tax cuts pay for themselves?
        • On what do economists agree and disagree about the effects of taxes on economic growth?
        • What are the economic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?
      • Economic Stimulus
        • What is the role of monetary policy in alleviating economic downturns?
        • What are automatic stabilizers and how do they work?
        • What characteristics make fiscal stimulus most effective?
      • Distribution of Tax Burdens
        • How are federal taxes distributed?
        • Are federal taxes progressive?
        • How should progressivity be measured?
        • What is the difference between marginal and average tax rates?
        • What criticisms are levied against standard distributional analysis?
        • How should distributional tables be interpreted?
        • Who bears the burden of the corporate income tax?
        • Who bears the burden of federal excise taxes?
        • How do financing methods affect the distributional analyses of tax cuts?
        • How do taxes affect income inequality?
      • Tax Expenditures
        • What are tax expenditures and how are they structured?
        • What is the tax expenditure budget?
        • Why are tax expenditures controversial?
        • What are the largest tax expenditures?
        • How did the TCJA affect tax expenditures?
      • Tax Gap and Tax Shelters
        • What is the tax gap?
        • What does the IRS do and how can it be improved?
        • What is a tax shelter?
      • Recent History of the Tax Code
        • What did the 2008–10 tax stimulus acts do?
        • What did the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 do?
        • How did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act change personal taxes?
        • How did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act change business taxes?
    • Key Elements of the U.S. Tax System
      • Individual Income Tax
        • What is the standard deduction?
        • What are itemized deductions and who claims them?
        • How did the TCJA change the standard deduction and itemized deductions?
        • What are personal exemptions?
        • How do federal income tax rates work?
        • What are tax credits and how do they differ from tax deductions?
        • How do phaseouts of tax provisions affect taxpayers?
      • Capital Gains and Dividends
        • How are capital gains taxed?
        • What is the effect of a lower tax rate for capital gains?
        • What is carried interest, and how is it taxed?
        • How might the taxation of capital gains be improved?
      • AMT
        • What is the AMT?
        • Who pays the AMT?
        • How much revenue does the AMT raise?
        • How did the TCJA change the AMT?
      • Taxes and the Family
        • What is the child tax credit?
        • What is the adoption tax credit?
        • What is the earned income tax credit?
        • Do all people eligible for the EITC participate?
        • How does the tax system subsidize child care expenses?
        • What are marriage penalties and bonuses?
        • How did the TCJA change taxes of families with children?
      • Taxes and the Poor
        • How does the federal tax system affect low-income households?
        • What is the difference between refundable and nonrefundable credits?
        • Can poor families benefit from the child tax credit?
        • Why do low-income families use tax preparers?
        • How does the earned income tax credit affect poor families?
        • What are error rates for refundable credits and what causes them?
        • How do IRS audits affect low-income families?
      • Taxes and Retirement Saving
        • What kinds of tax-favored retirement arrangements are there?
        • How large are the tax expenditures for retirement saving?
        • What are defined benefit retirement plans?
        • What are defined contribution retirement plans?
        • What types of nonemployer-sponsored retirement savings accounts are available?
        • What are Roth individual retirement accounts?
        • Who uses individual retirement accounts?
        • How does the availability of tax-favored retirement saving affect national saving?
        • What’s the difference between front-loaded and back-loaded retirement accounts?
        • What is an automatic 401(k)?
        • How might low- and middle-income households be encouraged to save?
      • Taxes and Charitable Giving
        • What is the tax treatment of charitable contributions?
        • What entities are tax-exempt?
        • Who benefits from the deduction for charitable contributions?
        • How would various proposals affect incentives for charitable giving?
        • How large are individual income tax incentives for charitable giving?
        • How did the TCJA affect incentives for charitable giving?
      • Taxes and Health Care
        • How much does the federal government spend on health care?
        • Who has health insurance coverage?
        • Which tax provisions subsidize the cost of health care?
        • How does the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance work?
        • What are premium tax credits?
        • What tax changes did the Affordable Care Act make?
        • How do health savings accounts work?
        • How do flexible spending accounts for health care expenses work?
        • What are health reimbursement arrangements and how do they work?
        • How might the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) be reformed?
      • Taxes and Homeownership
        • What are the tax benefits of homeownership?
        • Do existing tax incentives increase homeownership?
      • Taxes and Education
        • What tax incentives exist for higher education?
        • What tax incentives exist to help families pay for college?
        • What tax incentives exist to help families save for education expenses?
        • What is the tax treatment of college and university endowments?
      • Tax Complexity
        • Why are taxes so complicated?
        • What are the benefits of simpler taxes?
        • What policy reforms could simplify the tax code?
      • Wealth Transfer Taxes
        • How do the estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer taxes work?
        • Who pays the estate tax?
        • How many people pay the estate tax?
        • What is the difference between carryover basis and a step-up in basis?
        • How could we reform the estate tax?
        • What are the options for taxing wealth transfers?
        • What is an inheritance tax?
      • Payroll Taxes
        • What are the major federal payroll taxes, and how much money do they raise?
        • What is the unemployment insurance trust fund, and how is it financed?
        • What are the Social Security trust funds, and how are they financed?
        • Are the Social Security trust funds real?
        • What is the Medicare trust fund, and how is it financed?
      • Excise Taxes
        • What are the major federal excise taxes, and how much money do they raise?
        • What is the Highway Trust Fund, and how is it financed?
      • Energy and Environmental Taxes
        • What tax incentives encourage energy production from fossil fuels?
        • What tax incentives encourage alternatives to fossil fuels?
        • What is a carbon tax?
      • Business Taxes
        • How does the corporate income tax work?
        • What are pass-through businesses?
        • How are pass-through businesses taxed?
        • Is corporate income double-taxed?
      • Tax Incentives for Economic Development
        • What is the new markets tax credit, and how does it work?
        • What is the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit and how does it work?
        • What are Opportunity Zones and how do they work?
      • Taxes and Multinational Corporations
        • How does the current system of international taxation work?
        • How do US corporate income tax rates and revenues compare with other countries’?
        • What are the consequences of the new US international tax system?
        • How does the tax system affect US competitiveness?
        • How would formulary apportionment work?
        • What are inversions, and how will TCJA affect them?
        • What is a territorial tax and does the United States have one now?
        • What is the TCJA repatriation tax and how does it work?
        • What is the TCJA base erosion and anti-abuse tax and how does it work?
        • What is global intangible low-taxed income and how is it taxed under the TCJA?
        • What is foreign-derived intangible income and how is it taxed under the TCJA?
    • How Could We Improve the Federal Tax System?
      • Comprehensive Tax Reform
        • What is comprehensive tax reform?
        • What are the major options for comprehensive tax reform?
      • Broad-Based Income Tax
        • What is a broad-based income tax?
        • What would and would not be taxed under a broad-based income tax?
        • What would the tax rate be under a broad-based income tax?
      • National Retail Sales Tax
        • What is a national retail sales tax?
        • What would and would not be taxed under a national retail sales tax?
        • What would the tax rate be under a national retail sales tax?
        • What is the difference between a tax-exclusive and tax-inclusive sales tax rate?
        • Who bears the burden of a national retail sales tax?
        • Would tax evasion and avoidance be a significant problem for a national retail sales tax?
        • What would be the effect of a national retail sales tax on economic growth?
        • What transition rules would be needed for a national retail sales tax?
        • Would a national retail sales tax simplify the tax code?
        • What can state and local sales taxes tell us about a national retail sales tax?
        • What is the experience of other countries with national retail sales taxes?
        • What did the President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform say about the national retail sales tax?
      • Value Added Tax (VAT)
        • What is a VAT?
        • How would a VAT be collected?
        • What would and would not be taxed under a VAT?
        • What would the tax rate be under a VAT?
        • What is the difference between zero rating and exempting a good in the VAT?
        • Who would bear the burden of a VAT?
        • Is the VAT a money machine?
        • How would small businesses be treated under a VAT?
        • What is the Canadian experience with a VAT?
        • Why is the VAT administratively superior to a retail sales tax?
        • What is the history of the VAT?
        • How are different consumption taxes related?
      • Other Comprehensive Tax Reforms
        • What is the flat tax?
        • What is the X-tax?
      • Recent Comprehensive Tax Reform Proposals
        • Simple, Fair, and Pro-Growth: Proposals to Fix America’s Tax System, Report of the President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, November 2005
        • The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, December 2010
        • Debt Reduction Task Force, “Restoring America’s Future,” Bipartisan Policy Center, November 2010
        • The Tax Reform Act of 2014: Fixing Our Broken Tax Code So That It Works for American Families and Job Creators, House Ways and Means Committee
        • The Graetz Competitive Tax Plan, Updated for 2015
      • Return-Free Tax Filing
        • What is return-free filing and how would it work?
        • What are the benefits of return-free filing?
        • What are the drawbacks of return-free filing?
        • How would the tax system need to change with return-free filing?
        • Who would qualify for return-free filing?
        • Would return-free filing raise taxes?
        • What was the experience with return-free filing in California?
        • What other countries use return-free filing?
    • The State of State (and Local) Tax Policy
      • State and Local Revenues
        • What are the sources of revenue for state governments?
        • What are the sources of revenue for local governments?
      • Specific State and Local Taxes
        • How do state and local individual income taxes work?
        • How do state and local sales taxes work?
        • How do state and local property taxes work?
        • How do state and local corporate income taxes work?
        • How do state estate and inheritance taxes work?
        • How do state earned income tax credits work?
        • How do state and local severance taxes work?
        • How do state and local soda taxes work?
        • How do marijuana taxes work?
      • Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Institutions
        • How does the deduction for state and local taxes work?
        • What are municipal bonds and how are they used?
        • What types of federal grants are made to state and local governments and how do they work?
        • What are state rainy day funds, and how do they work?
        • What are tax and expenditure limits?
        • What are state balanced budget requirements and how do they work?
    • Glossary
      • Glossary
        • Glossary

What criticisms are levied against standard distributional analysis?

Distribution of Tax Burdens

<5/10>
Individual Taxes
Q.

What criticisms are levied against standard distributional analysis?

A.

Economists disagree on which taxes to include, how to measure tax burdens, what to assume about tax incidence, how to measure income, what period of analysis to use, and whether to include outlays in the calculations.

Distributional analyses of tax burdens across income groups play an important role in debates over the tax system and how to reform it. Differences in the conceptual framework, underlying theoretical assumptions, and empirical implementation can all significantly affect the results of these analyses.

Here are some of the criticisms that have been levied against standard distributional analyses prepared by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center (TPC), the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

TAXES INCLUDED

Analyses often omit certain taxes. For example, TPC previously omitted excise taxes, and JCT and CBO omit estate and gift taxes. Many analyses make no provision for the impact of state and local taxes.

HOW TAX BURDENS ARE MEASURED

Households may adjust their behavior to avoid some of the burden of tax changes. JCT uses actual tax payments, which reflects avoidance behavior. But this measure understates the true tax burden because it ignores welfare loss. Conversely, TPC and OTA use a “static” (no behavior) assumption, which overstates true burdens. All groups use projected tax receipts to measure the burden of current-law taxes, and these receipts reflect households’ behavioral responses, so these burdens are understated. Further, the inclusion of payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare has been criticized on the grounds that the distributional impact of the associated benefits is omitted.

Incidence assumptions

Uncertainty over the economic incidence of some taxes, especially the corporate income tax, leads some economists to criticize the specific assumptions made in distributional analyses.

Income measure

Income is used in distributional analyses to rank households by their “ability to pay”; it is also used to provide measures of tax burdens such as taxes as a percent of income by income group. These methods are often criticized because different definitions and measurements of income can significantly affect distributional results.

In theory, a broad definition of income may appropriately rank families and measure tax burdens, but this definition can be too far removed from common understandings of income and difficult to employ because of gaps in available data.

Conversely, even a quite broad definition of income, such as TPC’s “expanded cash income,” can be criticized as being too narrow because it omits in-kind benefits such as Medicare, Medicaid, and housing assistance, which can significantly improve recipient households’ well-being.

Some argue that consumption, rather than income, should be used to rank households and measure tax burdens. Income is either consumed currently or saved for future consumption. A household’s current consumption measures current well-being. Savings, meanwhile, are included in the measure of future well-being, when the household withdraws savings to finance consumption. Focusing on current income overstates current savers’ well-being and understates the well-being of current dissavers.

Period of analysis

Most distributional analyses focus on a single year, but some tax provisions have effects over multiple years. For example, contributions to a traditional individual retirement account (IRA) are deductible when made but taxable when withdrawn, and the earnings IRAs accrue are not taxed. An annual measure of tax burdens would only capture the effect of the contribution in one of these years, rather than measure the multiyear consequences of the IRA contribution. TPC and OTA use alternative annual measures for some multiyear provisions in their distributional analyses, but these measures rely on uncertain assumptions, such as when taxable withdrawals begin and the rate at which to discount taxes paid in the future.

In addition, a tax proposal may have provisions that phase in or phase out over time, or that are only temporary. Standard distribution tables have represented such temporal issues in various ways. Economists have prepared analyses for each year (or perhaps the beginning and end year) of a phase-in, phaseout, or temporary provision, or have developed methods that reflect the present value of the provision over the budget period. These approaches are all open to criticism.

All four groups use annual income measures, which can be problematic because income is volatile: some normally high-income households will be counted among low-income households in a particular year, while some normally low-income households will appear to have higher incomes. Further, income for most individuals follows a “life-cycle” pattern—generally rising through about age 50 and then declining—so in any particular year, the distribution will underestimate the welfare of the young and old and overestimate the welfare of the middle-aged.

Taxes versus spending

The federal budget counts amounts paid as refundable credits on the expenditure side of the ledger, but all standard distributional analyses classify those amounts as (negative) taxes. Similarly, all analyses effectively reduce tax burdens by the special exemptions, deductions, tax rates, and credits that represent “tax expenditures,” which arguably should be counted as budget outlays rather than as tax reductions. Including these outlays in the analyses understates the true burden of taxes.

Moreover, because standard distributional analyses omit the benefits from most government spending programs, these analyses do not reflect the overall effect of the federal budget on the well-being of households.

Effects on the deficit and spending

All four groups ignore the effects of financing a tax cut, be it through reductions in current outlays, higher deficits, or higher debt (which eventually will require future tax increases or reductions in spending to repay). They also omit the opposite effects of a tax increase.

Macroeconomic effects

All four groups assume for purposes of distributional analyses that any tax change leaves economic aggregates (gross domestic product, employment, the price level, etc.) unchanged. Critics argue that tax reform could improve economic performance and thereby raise revenues while improving the well-being of many (if not all) households.

Other dimensions of tax policy

A frequent criticism of distributional analyses is that they focus on only one dimension of tax policy: vertical equity (fairness across income groups). Less attention is therefore paid to horizontal equity (fairness within income groups), simplification, economic efficiency, and how the tax system may finance worthy federal spending.

Updated May 2020
Further Reading

Bradford, David F., ed. 1995. Distributional Analysis of Tax Policy. Washington, DC: AEI Press.

Burman, Leonard E. 2007. “Fairness in Tax Policy.” Testimony before the Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government, House Appropriations Committee, Washington, DC, March 5.

Congressional Budget Office. 2013. “The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006.” Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.

———. 2018. “The Distribution of Household Income, 2014.” Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.

———. 2019. "The Distribution of Household Income, 2016." Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.

Cronin, Julie-Anne. 1999. “US Treasury Distributional Analysis Methodology.” OTA paper 85. Washington, DC: US Department of the Treasury.

Gale, William, and Andrew A. Samwick. 2014. “Effects of Income Tax Changes on Economic Growth.” Washington, DC: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

Joint Committee on Taxation. 1993. “Methodology and Issues in Measuring Changes in the Distribution of Tax Burdens.” JCS-7-93. Washington, DC: Joint Committee on Taxation.

———. 2015. “Fairness and Tax Policy.” JCX-48-15. Washington, DC: Joint Committee on Taxation.

Marron, Donald, and Eric Toder. 2011. “Tax Policy and the Size of Government.” In Proceedings from the 104th Annual Conference on Taxation, 30–40. Washington, DC: National Tax Association.

Business Taxes
Tax rates (business)
Federal Budget and Economy
Economic effects of tax policy
Individual Taxes
Tax rates
  • ‹Read Previous What is the difference between marginal and average tax rates?
  • Read Next› How should distributional tables be interpreted?
  • Donate Today
  • Topics
  • TaxVox Blog
  • Research & Commentary
  • Laws & Proposals
  • Model Estimates
  • Statistics
  • Privacy Policy
  • Newsletters
Twitter
Facebook
  • © Urban Institute, Brookings Institution, and individual authors, 2022.