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Tax Policy Center

Research & Commentary

Brief
Federal Budget and Economy

The Pandemic and President-Elect Biden’s Opportunity to Chart a New Course

How much has the COVID-19 pandemic changed America’s fiscal future and affected President-elect Biden’s opportunity to set a new course for fiscal policy? Largely as a consequence of the pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in September projected a deficit of more than $3 trillion for...

December 30, 2020
Erald KolasiC. Eugene Steuerle
Research report
State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2020 Quarter 2

States saw steep declines in revenues in the second quarter of 2020, though some of this was caused by shifting revenues into the next quarter and next fiscal year. Consequently, most states ended fiscal year 2020 uncertain about their fiscal bottom line.  Many states cut...

December 24, 2020
Lucy Dadayan
Brief
Individual Taxes

Extending the Earned Income Tax Credit to Students: A Comparison of Aid Policies

Postsecondary education can be a critical step on the path toward economic independence, but many low-income students who are independent for tax purposes face tremendous financial difficulties when trying to complete postsecondary school. Extending the Economic Security Project’s cost-of-living...

December 17, 2020
Elaine MaagNikhita AiriSandy BaumKim S. Rueben
Brief
State and Local Issues

Itemizing on State and Federal Tax Income Returns: It's (Now More) Complicated

A taxpayer’s decision to itemize deductions or to claim the standard deduction on their income tax return is often framed as a simple calculation: Claim the greater of the two so as to minimize tax liability. But in states that require taxpayers to use the same status on their state income tax...

December 2, 2020
David Weiner
Brief
Federal Budget and Economy

The Federal Budget Outlook After COVID-19

This policy brief shows that the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses substantially raised federal deficits, but only on a temporary basis. We project that the debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 98 percent, will rise to 190 percent in 2050 under current law, compared to a pre-COVID...

November 23, 2020
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale
Research report
Individual Taxes

Social Security & Medicare Lifetime Benefits & Taxes: 2020

This report presents updated figures in 2020 dollars for the lifetime benefits earned and the lifetime taxes paid by hypothetical workers participating in Social Security and Medicare. For a single male earning average wages every year and retiring in 2020 at age 65, lifetime Social Security and...

November 17, 2020
Erald KolasiC. Eugene Steuerle
Brief
Business Taxes

Macroeconomic Analysis of Former Vice President Biden's Tax Proposals

NOTE: This is a corrected version of the analysis originally published October 29, 2020.

The Tax Policy Center (TPC) has analyzed the macroeconomic effects of former vice president Joe Biden’s tax proposals. We find the tax proposals would boost US gross...

November 10, 2020
Benjamin R. Page
Brief
Federal Budget and Economy

Sine Qua Non: A Healthy Nation Requires Real Budget Constraints in All Government Health Programs

Every government health program should operate under the same budget constraint that applies to other government programs. Failure to do so represents bad budgeting and economic, social, and health policy; redistributes income in perverse ways; and makes health care...

November 6, 2020
C. Eugene Steuerle
Brief
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms

An Updated Analysis of Former Vice President Biden's Tax Proposals

NOTE: This is a corrected version of the analysis originally published October 15, 2020.

This brief updates estimates of the revenue and distributional effects of former vice president Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign tax...

November 6, 2020
Gordon B. MerminJanet HoltzblattSurachai KhitatrakunChenxi LuThornton MathesonJeffrey Rohaly
Brief
Federal Budget and Economy

The Long Shadow of White Supremacist Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy was of primary importance to the white supremacist governments that came to power on a wave of electoral fraud, intimidation, and violence at the end of the Reconstruction. By the end of the 19th Century, the fiscal system, like the larger legal framework of the Jim Crow South, had...

November 4, 2020
Vanessa Williamson

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