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The Tax Policy Center's

Briefing Book

A citizen’s guide to the fascinating (though often complex) elements of the US tax system.

Tax Policy Center Briefing Book

Some Background

  • Briefing Book
  • Taxes and the Economy
  • Do tax cuts pay for themselves?
  • Chapters
    • Introduction
      • Introduction
        • Introduction
    • Some Background
      • Federal Budget
        • What are the sources of revenue for the federal government?
        • How does the federal government spend its money?
        • What is the breakdown of revenues among federal, state, and local governments?
        • How do US taxes compare internationally?
      • Federal Budget Process
        • How does the federal budget process work?
        • What is the history of the federal budget process?
        • What is the schedule for the federal budget process?
        • What is reconciliation?
        • How is a budget resolution enforced?
        • What is PAYGO?
        • What are rescissions?
      • Federal Budget Outlook
        • How accurate are long-run budget projections?
        • What have budget trends been over the short and long term?
        • How much spending is uncontrollable?
        • What are tax extenders?
        • What options would increase federal revenues?
        • What does it mean for a government program to be off-budget?
        • How did the TCJA affect the federal budget outlook?
      • Taxes and the Economy
        • How do taxes affect the economy in the short run?
        • How do taxes affect the economy in the long run?
        • What are dynamic scoring and dynamic analysis?
        • Do tax cuts pay for themselves?
        • On what do economists agree and disagree about the effects of taxes on economic growth?
        • What are the economic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?
      • Economic Stimulus
        • What is the role of monetary policy in alleviating economic downturns?
        • What are automatic stabilizers and how do they work?
        • What characteristics make fiscal stimulus most effective?
      • Distribution of Tax Burdens
        • How are federal taxes distributed?
        • Are federal taxes progressive?
        • How should progressivity be measured?
        • What is the difference between marginal and average tax rates?
        • What criticisms are levied against standard distributional analysis?
        • How should distributional tables be interpreted?
        • Who bears the burden of the corporate income tax?
        • Who bears the burden of federal excise taxes?
        • How do financing methods affect the distributional analyses of tax cuts?
        • How do taxes affect income inequality?
      • Tax Expenditures
        • What are tax expenditures and how are they structured?
        • What is the tax expenditure budget?
        • Why are tax expenditures controversial?
        • What are the largest tax expenditures?
        • How did the TCJA affect tax expenditures?
      • Tax Gap and Tax Shelters
        • What is the tax gap?
        • What does the IRS do and how can it be improved?
        • What is a tax shelter?
      • Recent History of the Tax Code
        • What did the 2008–10 tax stimulus acts do?
        • What did the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 do?
        • How did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act change personal taxes?
        • How did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act change business taxes?
    • Key Elements of the U.S. Tax System
      • Individual Income Tax
        • What is the standard deduction?
        • What are itemized deductions and who claims them?
        • How did the TCJA change the standard deduction and itemized deductions?
        • What are personal exemptions?
        • How do federal income tax rates work?
        • What are tax credits and how do they differ from tax deductions?
        • How do phaseouts of tax provisions affect taxpayers?
      • Capital Gains and Dividends
        • How are capital gains taxed?
        • What is the effect of a lower tax rate for capital gains?
        • What is carried interest, and how is it taxed?
        • How might the taxation of capital gains be improved?
      • AMT
        • What is the AMT?
        • Who pays the AMT?
        • How much revenue does the AMT raise?
        • How did the TCJA change the AMT?
      • Taxes and the Family
        • What is the child tax credit?
        • What is the adoption tax credit?
        • What is the earned income tax credit?
        • Do all people eligible for the EITC participate?
        • How does the tax system subsidize child care expenses?
        • What are marriage penalties and bonuses?
        • How did the TCJA change taxes of families with children?
      • Taxes and the Poor
        • How does the federal tax system affect low-income households?
        • What is the difference between refundable and nonrefundable credits?
        • Can poor families benefit from the child tax credit?
        • Why do low-income families use tax preparers?
        • How does the earned income tax credit affect poor families?
        • What are error rates for refundable credits and what causes them?
        • How do IRS audits affect low-income families?
      • Taxes and Retirement Saving
        • What kinds of tax-favored retirement arrangements are there?
        • How large are the tax expenditures for retirement saving?
        • What are defined benefit retirement plans?
        • What are defined contribution retirement plans?
        • What types of nonemployer-sponsored retirement savings accounts are available?
        • What are Roth individual retirement accounts?
        • Who uses individual retirement accounts?
        • How does the availability of tax-favored retirement saving affect national saving?
        • What’s the difference between front-loaded and back-loaded retirement accounts?
        • What is an automatic 401(k)?
        • How might low- and middle-income households be encouraged to save?
      • Taxes and Charitable Giving
        • What is the tax treatment of charitable contributions?
        • What entities are tax-exempt?
        • Who benefits from the deduction for charitable contributions?
        • How would various proposals affect incentives for charitable giving?
        • How large are individual income tax incentives for charitable giving?
        • How did the TCJA affect incentives for charitable giving?
      • Taxes and Health Care
        • How much does the federal government spend on health care?
        • Who has health insurance coverage?
        • Which tax provisions subsidize the cost of health care?
        • How does the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance work?
        • What are premium tax credits?
        • What tax changes did the Affordable Care Act make?
        • How do health savings accounts work?
        • How do flexible spending accounts for health care expenses work?
        • What are health reimbursement arrangements and how do they work?
        • How might the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) be reformed?
      • Taxes and Homeownership
        • What are the tax benefits of homeownership?
        • Do existing tax incentives increase homeownership?
      • Taxes and Education
        • What tax incentives exist for higher education?
        • What tax incentives exist to help families pay for college?
        • What tax incentives exist to help families save for education expenses?
        • What is the tax treatment of college and university endowments?
      • Tax Complexity
        • Why are taxes so complicated?
        • What are the benefits of simpler taxes?
        • What policy reforms could simplify the tax code?
      • Wealth Transfer Taxes
        • How do the estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer taxes work?
        • Who pays the estate tax?
        • How many people pay the estate tax?
        • What is the difference between carryover basis and a step-up in basis?
        • How could we reform the estate tax?
        • What are the options for taxing wealth transfers?
        • What is an inheritance tax?
      • Payroll Taxes
        • What are the major federal payroll taxes, and how much money do they raise?
        • What is the unemployment insurance trust fund, and how is it financed?
        • What are the Social Security trust funds, and how are they financed?
        • Are the Social Security trust funds real?
        • What is the Medicare trust fund, and how is it financed?
      • Excise Taxes
        • What are the major federal excise taxes, and how much money do they raise?
        • What is the Highway Trust Fund, and how is it financed?
      • Energy and Environmental Taxes
        • What tax incentives encourage energy production from fossil fuels?
        • What tax incentives encourage alternatives to fossil fuels?
        • What is a carbon tax?
      • Business Taxes
        • How does the corporate income tax work?
        • What are pass-through businesses?
        • How are pass-through businesses taxed?
        • Is corporate income double-taxed?
      • Tax Incentives for Economic Development
        • What is the new markets tax credit, and how does it work?
        • What is the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit and how does it work?
        • What are Opportunity Zones and how do they work?
      • Taxes and Multinational Corporations
        • How does the current system of international taxation work?
        • How do US corporate income tax rates and revenues compare with other countries’?
        • What are the consequences of the new US international tax system?
        • How does the tax system affect US competitiveness?
        • How would formulary apportionment work?
        • What are inversions, and how will TCJA affect them?
        • What is a territorial tax and does the United States have one now?
        • What is the TCJA repatriation tax and how does it work?
        • What is the TCJA base erosion and anti-abuse tax and how does it work?
        • What is global intangible low-taxed income and how is it taxed under the TCJA?
        • What is foreign-derived intangible income and how is it taxed under the TCJA?
    • How Could We Improve the Federal Tax System?
      • Comprehensive Tax Reform
        • What is comprehensive tax reform?
        • What are the major options for comprehensive tax reform?
      • Broad-Based Income Tax
        • What is a broad-based income tax?
        • What would and would not be taxed under a broad-based income tax?
        • What would the tax rate be under a broad-based income tax?
      • National Retail Sales Tax
        • What is a national retail sales tax?
        • What would and would not be taxed under a national retail sales tax?
        • What would the tax rate be under a national retail sales tax?
        • What is the difference between a tax-exclusive and tax-inclusive sales tax rate?
        • Who bears the burden of a national retail sales tax?
        • Would tax evasion and avoidance be a significant problem for a national retail sales tax?
        • What would be the effect of a national retail sales tax on economic growth?
        • What transition rules would be needed for a national retail sales tax?
        • Would a national retail sales tax simplify the tax code?
        • What can state and local sales taxes tell us about a national retail sales tax?
        • What is the experience of other countries with national retail sales taxes?
        • What did the President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform say about the national retail sales tax?
      • Value Added Tax (VAT)
        • What is a VAT?
        • How would a VAT be collected?
        • What would and would not be taxed under a VAT?
        • What would the tax rate be under a VAT?
        • What is the difference between zero rating and exempting a good in the VAT?
        • Who would bear the burden of a VAT?
        • Is the VAT a money machine?
        • How would small businesses be treated under a VAT?
        • What is the Canadian experience with a VAT?
        • Why is the VAT administratively superior to a retail sales tax?
        • What is the history of the VAT?
        • How are different consumption taxes related?
      • Other Comprehensive Tax Reforms
        • What is the flat tax?
        • What is the X-tax?
      • Recent Comprehensive Tax Reform Proposals
        • Simple, Fair, and Pro-Growth: Proposals to Fix America’s Tax System, Report of the President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, November 2005
        • The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, December 2010
        • Debt Reduction Task Force, “Restoring America’s Future,” Bipartisan Policy Center, November 2010
        • The Tax Reform Act of 2014: Fixing Our Broken Tax Code So That It Works for American Families and Job Creators, House Ways and Means Committee
        • The Graetz Competitive Tax Plan, Updated for 2015
      • Return-Free Tax Filing
        • What is return-free filing and how would it work?
        • What are the benefits of return-free filing?
        • What are the drawbacks of return-free filing?
        • How would the tax system need to change with return-free filing?
        • Who would qualify for return-free filing?
        • Would return-free filing raise taxes?
        • What was the experience with return-free filing in California?
        • What other countries use return-free filing?
    • The State of State (and Local) Tax Policy
      • State and Local Revenues
        • What are the sources of revenue for state governments?
        • What are the sources of revenue for local governments?
      • Specific State and Local Taxes
        • How do state and local individual income taxes work?
        • How do state and local sales taxes work?
        • How do state and local property taxes work?
        • How do state and local corporate income taxes work?
        • How do state estate and inheritance taxes work?
        • How do state earned income tax credits work?
        • How do state and local severance taxes work?
        • How do state and local soda taxes work?
        • How do marijuana taxes work?
      • Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Institutions
        • How does the deduction for state and local taxes work?
        • What are municipal bonds and how are they used?
        • What types of federal grants are made to state and local governments and how do they work?
        • What are state rainy day funds, and how do they work?
        • What are tax and expenditure limits?
        • What are state balanced budget requirements and how do they work?
    • Glossary
      • Glossary
        • Glossary

Do tax cuts pay for themselves?

Taxes and the Economy

<4/6>
Federal Budget and Economy
Q.

Do tax cuts pay for themselves?

A.

At current tax rates, the direct revenue loss from cutting tax rates almost always exceeds the indirect gain from increased activity or reduced tax avoidance. Cutting tax rates can, however, partly pay for itself. How much depends on how people respond to tax changes.

Tax rates and revenues

Economic activity generally responds to tax changes. If you increase the tax on cigarettes, people will smoke less and some will shift to illegal, untaxed cigarettes. Income taxes also trigger a response. If you increase the tax rate on wages and salaries, some people will work less. (Some will also work more to recoup lost after-tax income, but evidence suggests that the disincentive effect dominates.) Similarly, if you increase tax rates on returns to saving and investing, such as interest, dividends, and capital gains, some people will save and invest less. (Here too some people may save more to maintain the same after-tax savings, but evidence suggests that the disincentive effect, though small, still dominates.)

Meanwhile, people will also respond by trying to avoid the tax increase without changing their underlying work or saving behavior. For example, some may work off the books or reclassify earnings to lower-tax forms of income. And some will devote more effort to using tax-advantaged retirement savings, charitable deductions, and other tax breaks to cut their taxable incomes. All these responses reduce the potential revenue gain from increasing tax rates.

The same is true in reverse. If the government reduces tax rates on an activity, people will do more of it and will devote less effort to legal avoidance and illegal evasion. In principle, those responses could be so large that a tax increase would reduce revenue or a tax cut would increase revenue. In practice, however, these paradoxical effects are extremely rare. Cutting tax rates thus almost never pays for itself in full.

But cuts can and do pay for themselves in part. If a 10 percent reduction in a tax rate yields a 3 percent increase in taxable income, for example, revenues fall by only 7 percent. Taxpayer responses would thus pay for 30 percent of the tax cut. Real-world examples can be more complex; a change in income tax rates, for example, could affect both payroll and income tax receipts.

The laffer curve

Economist Arthur Laffer helped popularize the idea that the revenue effects of tax changes depend on taxpayers’ response. Figure 1 shows a hypothetical Laffer curve that tracks how revenues depend on the tax rate.

 

We should expect that revenues would be very low when tax rates are close to either zero (when no revenue is raised regardless of the size of the tax base) or 100 percent (when there is an extreme disincentive to earn or report taxable income). At some point in between—65 percent in this hypothetical—revenues peak.

That much is uncontroversial. Debates often arise, however, about the shape of the Laffer curve and where on the curve current tax rates fall.

Responsiveness

A government’s ability to raise revenues by raising tax rates is limited by how people respond. For example, a local government’s ability to raise revenues by taxing hotel stays is limited by how easily potential hotel patrons can find accommodation in lower-tax communities. A state’s ability to tax personal incomes, by the same token, is limited by taxpayers’ willingness to move to lower-tax states to avoid the added levy. Likewise, the federal government’s ability to tax corporations is limited by corporations’ ability to move economic activity—in substance or merely in form—to lower-tax nations. And so on.

Responses depend on economic and policy conditions. A tax cut is a bigger deal, for example, when marginal tax rates are 70 percent than when they are 40 percent. Responsiveness also varies with the difficulty of changing behavior. Taxpayers can avoid capital gains taxes, for example, by holding appreciated stock and other assets until death or by donating them to charity. As a result, some analysts estimate that the Laffer curve for capital gains taxes peaks around a 30 percent federal rate. If the government scaled back those tax-reduction opportunities, however, taxpayers would have less ability to defer or avoid capital gains taxes and the peak rate would be higher.

Updated May 2020
Further Reading

Congressional Budget Office. 2014. “How CBO Analyzes the Effects of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies on the Economy.” Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.

Joint Committee on Taxation. 2015. “Macroeconomic Analysis at the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Mechanics of Its Implementation.” Report JCX-3-15. Washington, DC: Joint Committee on Taxation.

Federal Budget and Economy
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