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Expert

Eric Toder

Nonresident Fellow

Before joining Urban, I had a long career in government, including three years as a political appointee heading the staff of tax policy economists in the Treasury Department. I joined Urban after leaving government service because it is a place where I could continue to do high-quality research on important issues, surrounded by great colleagues. I value the commitment to nonpartisan and independent analysis, and the encouragement Urban provides to seek better ways of communicating research findings and basic facts about the economy and policy issues to non-technical audiences.

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Primary tasks

Research report

Federal Budget and Economy

The Potential Economic Consequences of Disallowing the Taxation of Unrealized Income

In a pending Supreme Court case, Moore v. United States, the plaintiffs are challenging the constitutionality of a provision in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act imposing a transition tax on certain undistributed foreign profits of US taxpayers. The outcome of this case may severely constrain the...

October 11, 2023

Journal Article

Ed Kleinbard's Business Enterprise Income Tax

July 25, 2023

Working paper

Individual Taxes

An Analysis of the Updated Graetz Proposal to Enact a Broad Reform of the Federal Tax System

May 30, 2023

James R. Nunns Chenxi Lu Gordon B. Mermin Eric Toder

Research report

Effects of 2017 US Federal Tax Overhaul on the Energy Sector

This paper examines how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will affect the US energy sector. It combines qualitative analysis of a range of TCJA provisions with estimates from the Tax Policy Center’s Investment and Capital Model of how a narrower set of provisions will change marginal effective...

May 24, 2022

Brandon Cunningham Chenxi Lu Eric Toder Roberton C. Williams III

Journal Article

Harry Grubert’s Evolving Views on International Tax Policy

Harry Grubert made important contributions to our thinking about international tax policies. He identified the numerous margins on which corporate tax systems could distort behavior in a global economy and estimated the relative costs of these distortions. His views evolved over time from...

July 20, 2021

Journal Article

Does the Federal Income Tax Law Favor Entrepreneurs?

This paper estimates the effective tax rate on entrepreneurial income, defined as the return to an individual who starts a successful new business and then sells their interest once it becomes an established enterprise. The rate depends on both the tax imposed on the appreciation of the firm’s...

July 20, 2021

Research report

Individual Taxes

Trends in Tax Expenditures: An Update

Over the period between 2013 and 2029, the sum of the estimated budgetary costs of all tax expenditures as a percentage of gross domestic product will range from approximately 8.5 percent in fiscal year 2017 to 6 percent in fiscal years 2024 and 2025. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA)...

April 20, 2021

Sarah Calame Eric Toder

Research report

Individual Taxes

Accounting for The Benefit of Retirement Saving Incentives in Distribution Tables

This paper describes the updated methodology that the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center (TPC) uses to estimate the benefits taxpayers receive from proposals that allow them to save through a qualified retirement savings plan. We present tables comparing how we currently measure these benefits...

August 7, 2020

Eric Toder Surachai Khitatrakun

Research report

Individual Taxes

Expanding Modeling Capacity on Tax Expenditures for Homeownership

This report describes the Tax Policy Center (TPC) Microsimulation Model’s revamped home mortgage interest deduction (MID) module. The TPC tax model uses the module for simulating proposals that reform the MID. The new MID module improves upon the prior one in accounting for potential changes in...

July 17, 2020

Surachai Khitatrakun Eric Toder Robert McClelland Chenxi Lu

From TaxVox

Federal Budget and Economy
Examining the Tax Rules at Risk in SCOTUS Moore v. US Case
October 11, 2023 –
Later this year, the US Supreme Court will hear Moore v. United States , a case in which the plaintiffs are challenging the constitutionality of...
Individual Taxes
A Carbon Tax is Not the Solution to Global Climate Change
October 5, 2021 –
The definition of insanity, according to a famous quotation (often mis-attributed to Albert Einstein) is “doing the same thing over and over and expecting different...
Federal Budget and Economy
Tax Expenditures Remain A Significant Share of The Economy
April 20, 2021 –
Despite years of widespread discussion among lawmakers about the need to broaden the federal income tax base, tax expenditures have remained remarkably stable as a...
Individual Taxes
How Would Paydown Affect The Reform Of Home Mortgage Interest Deduction?
July 21, 2020 –
Reforming the mortgage interest deduction (MID) could raise federal tax revenue and make the tax system more progressive. But some taxpayers, especially those with high...
Business Taxes
Is A Modified Destination-Based Income Tax The Solution For Taxing Global Multinational Corporations?
April 15, 2020 –
Tax authorities around the world are in an increasingly contentious battle over how to tax the income of multinational corporations . In 2017, the US...
Federal Budget and Economy
What Tax Experts Can Contribute: Lessons from World War II
March 31, 2020 –
The United States is facing an immense human tragedy. According to one influential analysis , up to 2 million Americans could die from COVID-19 in...
State and Local Issues
States Adopt Some Federal Tax Expenditures And Add Others
January 24, 2020 –
In fiscal year 2020, Georgia will spend nearly $500 million in film and television tax credits in return for the promise of new jobs and...
The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Reduced Tax Expenditures But By Much Less Than The 1986 Tax Reform Act
December 10, 2019 –
For years, tax reformers have advocated reducing marginal tax rates, broadening the tax base, and eliminating provisions that provide special benefits to select forms of...
What The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Means For Tax Expenditures
June 5, 2019 –
In a new paper , my former Tax Policy Center colleague Daniel Berger and I calculate that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)...
Despite the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the Federal Tax System is Becoming More Progressive Over Time
September 18, 2018 –
The Tax Policy Center’s newly released baseline tables tell a nuanced and somewhat paradoxical story. For over a decade, legislative changes and real income growth...
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms
In A Trade War, The Enemy Is Us
July 23, 2018 –
Walt Kelly ’s comic strip character Pogo said: “We have met the enemy and he is us.” It seems a particularly apt metaphor for the...
Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax Depend on How the Revenue is Spent
July 19, 2018 –
Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy just released a series of papers on how a carbon tax would reduce greenhouse gas emissions, affect economic...
Business Taxes
Is the TCJA An Accountants’ Bonanza Or Nightmare?
June 12, 2018 –
In a Harvard Business Review article last December, I described how the complex and poorly vetted provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)...
Business Taxes
Eliminate The Deduction For Qualified Business Income And Require Most Firms To Be Taxed As Pass-Throughs
June 4, 2018 –
The most problematic provision of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) may be its 20 percent deduction for qualified business income (QBI) of owners...
1986 RIP: Different Tax Rates for Different Income Sources
March 16, 2018 –
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the most far-reaching tax legislation since the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86). It also put...
Business Taxes
Explaining the TCJA’s International Reforms
February 2, 2018 –
In a blog post introducing a recent article I wrote for AEI’s Economic Perspectives, AEI’s Stan Veuger describes this approach as replacing “subdued worldwide corporate...
Comparing the House and Senate Tax Cut Bills to the GOP Presidential Campaign Promises
November 30, 2017 –
The New York Times reports that some Republican senators are clamoring for larger tax cuts, especially for pass-through business income. The Times says that while...
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms
The House Ways and Means Tax Bill Would Raise the National Debt to 123 percent of GDP by 2037
November 16, 2017 –
The Tax Policy Center estimates that the House Ways and Means Committee’s version of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) would increase the ratio...
Business Taxes
Navigating the confusing language of international tax reform
December 14, 2016 –
There has been considerable confusion about how to describe the treatment of international taxation in corporate tax reform plans. The House GOP blueprint , for...
Individual Taxes
How a mortgage tax credit would affect borrowers of different incomes in different states
December 7, 2016 –
This post is part of the Tax Policy Center’s new series, Tax Line , which digs into the data behind the day’s most pressing tax...
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms
Trump Adviser Comments on Taxes and Trade Turn Economic Theory On Its Head
October 14, 2016 –
Yesterday’s presentation by Donald Trump's economic adviser, Peter Navarro, at the Tax Policy Center’s discussion of the presidential candidate tax plans reminded me of a...
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms
Trump’s Phony Claim about Carried Interest
October 10, 2016 –
When asked in last night’s debate about what he would do to make sure the rich pay their fair share of taxes, Donald Trump said...
Federal Budget and Economy
A value added tax is not a trade barrier
September 28, 2016 –
Donald Trump peddled an economic fallacy in Monday night’s Presidential debate by suggesting that Mexico’s value added tax, or VAT, gives its producers an advantage...
Business Taxes
Treasury’s New Regulations are an Important Shift in U.S. Tax Policy
April 12, 2016 –
Treasury’s new regulations limit the ability of foreign-based multinationals to reduce taxable profits on U.S.-source income. This is a major...
Business Taxes
Corporate Tax Inversions are Only Part of the Problem
December 10, 2015 –
The planned merger of Pfizer and Allergen to create an Irish parent company, a transaction often called an inversion, has rekindled concerns about U...