This paper gives an overview of the TPC’s methodology for dynamic analysis of tax proposals. Following the practice of official government estimators, we use a Keynesian model to estimate the short-term effects of policy changes on output relative to its full-employment level. That model assumes...
New information from the Congressional Budget Office allows an update of the fiscal outlook. While deficits are manageable in the short run, the debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms. Under “current policy,” we project the ratio will rise to 96 percent by 2027 and 154...
This essay is the tenth in a twelve-essay colloquium on the effect of low interest rates on the economy. To read other essays in the series, click here. The original version of this paper was...
Economists widely advocate establishing a price on carbon as a central means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the risks of global climatic disruption and ocean acidification. To be sure, a price on carbon is necessarily one part of a broader climate policy portfolio that includes...
A longstanding concern of state and local governments is that a federal value-added tax (VAT) could shrink sales tax bases. But a federal VAT could have even bigger effects on other revenues and spending through changes in incomes, relative prices, and asset values. To illustrate the range of...
After worsening sharply during the Great Recession, the long-term fiscal outlook generally improved through 2015, due to a combination of legislative acts and lower projected growth of health care spending. The same factors and the slow but steady economic recovery helped reduce short-term...
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Jeb Bush’s tax proposal. It would reduce individual and business marginal tax rates, curtail tax expenditures, and convert the corporate income tax into a cash-flow consumption tax. The proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, reducing federal...
Opposition to the ACA’s “Cadillac” tax is growing. This excise tax applies to employer health benefits exceeding a threshold. There has been broader support over time for a cap on the tax exclusion of employer contributions to health insurance, including from many who now want to repeal the...
Opposition to the ACA’s “Cadillac” tax is growing. This excise tax applies to employer health benefits exceeding a threshold. There has been broader support over time for a cap on the tax exclusion of employer contributions to health insurance, including from many who now want to repeal the...
An Analysis of the House GOP Tax Plan
This research report was originally published by the Columbia Journal of Tax Law. The publication is updated version of, "An Analysis of the...
Dynamic Analysis of Tax Plans: An Update
This paper gives an overview of the TPC’s methodology for dynamic analysis of tax proposals. Following the practice of official government estimators, we use a Keynesian model to estimate the short-term effects of policy changes on output relative to its full-employment level. That model assumes...
The Fiscal Outlook at the Beginning of the Trump Administration
New information from the Congressional Budget Office allows an update of the fiscal outlook. While deficits are manageable in the short run, the debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms. Under “current policy,” we project the ratio will rise to 96 percent by 2027 and 154...
Interest Rates and the Federal Budget Outlook
This essay is the tenth in a twelve-essay colloquium on the effect of low interest rates on the economy. To read other essays in the series, click here. The original version of this paper was...
11 Essential Questions for Designing a Policy to Price Carbon
Economists widely advocate establishing a price on carbon as a central means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the risks of global climatic disruption and ocean acidification. To be sure, a price on carbon is necessarily one part of a broader climate policy portfolio that includes...
Effects of a Federal Value-Added Tax on State and Local Budgets
A longstanding concern of state and local governments is that a federal value-added tax (VAT) could shrink sales tax bases. But a federal VAT could have even bigger effects on other revenues and spending through changes in incomes, relative prices, and asset values. To illustrate the range of...
Once More Unto the Breach
After worsening sharply during the Great Recession, the long-term fiscal outlook generally improved through 2015, due to a combination of legislative acts and lower projected growth of health care spending. The same factors and the slow but steady economic recovery helped reduce short-term...
An Analysis of Governor Bush's Tax Plan
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Jeb Bush’s tax proposal. It would reduce individual and business marginal tax rates, curtail tax expenditures, and convert the corporate income tax into a cash-flow consumption tax. The proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, reducing federal...
The ACA's "Cadillac" Tax Versus a Cap on the Tax Exclusion of Employer-Based Health Benefits: Is This a Battle Worth Fighting?
Opposition to the ACA’s “Cadillac” tax is growing. This excise tax applies to employer health benefits exceeding a threshold. There has been broader support over time for a cap on the tax exclusion of employer contributions to health insurance, including from many who now want to repeal the...
The ACA's "Cadillac" Tax Versus a Cap on the Tax Exclusion of Employer-Based Health Benefits: Is This a Battle Worth Fighting?
Opposition to the ACA’s “Cadillac” tax is growing. This excise tax applies to employer health benefits exceeding a threshold. There has been broader support over time for a cap on the tax exclusion of employer contributions to health insurance, including from many who now want to repeal the...