September 16, 2016
This paper analyzes the House GOP tax reform blueprint, which would significantly reduce marginal tax rates, increase standard deduction amounts, repeal personal exemptions and most itemized deductions, allow businesses to expense new investment, and not allow businesses to deduct net interest expenses. Taxes would drop at all income levels in 2017, but most savings would go to the highest-income households. Federal revenues would fall by $3.1 trillion over the first decade before accounting for added interest costs and macroeconomic effects. Including both those factors, the federal debt would rise by at least $3.0 trillion over the first decade and by least $6.6 trillion over the second ten years.