The Fiscal Outlook at the Beginning of the Trump Administration

New information from the Congressional Budget Office allows an update of the fiscal outlook. While deficits are manageable in the short run, the debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms. Under “current policy,” we project the ratio will rise to 96 percent by 2027 and 154 percent by 2047. Rising federal debt will crowd out future investment, reduce prospects for economic growth, and impose burdens on future generations. Keeping the debt-GDP ratio in 2047 at its current level (77 percent) would require immediate annual combined spending cuts and tax increases of 2.75 percent of GDP.