State government tax revenues rebounded in the first quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018. However, year-over-year growth was substantially weaker in the first quarter of 2019 than in the final quarter of 2017 and the first three quarters of 2018. Most of the recent weakness
Urban Institute president, Robert Reischauer, testifies before Congress on some of the challenges facing the Congress as it makes its decisions about the fiscal 2003 budget.
Debate over tax policy is always intense, as it should be since much of the government's agenda is defined within the tax system. When it comes to tax cuts, this debate usually centers on size of government and progressivity of the tax system.
The testimony discusses current statistics on tax evasion, the argument for trying to stem it, and why IRS efforts so far have been disappointing. It then focuses on specific issues related to the earned income tax credit (EITC). The testimony concludes that, while deterring system-wide tax evasion
This paper addresses issues relating to the creation of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) as part of a carbon tax. A carbon tax that is imposed only in the U.S. could put American firms at a competitive disadvantage. A BCA could level the playing field so that U.S. and foreign-firms face the same
State government tax revenues showed year-over-year growth at 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2020. However, preliminary data indicate double-digit declines in state government tax revenues in the second quarter of 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and government responses. States’ economic
Hillary Clinton proposes raising taxes on high-income taxpayers, modifying taxation of multinational corporations, repealing fossil fuel tax incentives, and increasing estate and gift taxes. Her proposals would increase revenue by $1.1 trillion over the next decade. Nearly all of the tax increases
In this brief, we consider both personal and business income tax expenditures at the state level. We use California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and the District of Columbia as examples. We separate tax expenditures into those that occur because of conformity with federal tax provisions and those
State tax revenues showed continued growth in the first half of fiscal year 2020. State government tax revenues from major sources showed solid year-over-year growth at 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March as
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) will reduce individual income taxes on average for all income groups and in all states. Unlike prior Tax Policy Center reports, this analysis focuses on the distribution of the individual income tax changes, and does not include changes in the corporate income tax,
State and local government tax revenues showed normal growth in the third quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018, much weaker growth in the first quarter of 2019, and robust growth in the second quarter of 2019. Most of the volatility in the prior quarters was attributable to
State government tax revenues from major sources declined in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the same quarter in 2017, mostly because of declines in state income tax revenues. The declines in income tax collection are partially attributable to the disappearing impact of incentives created
State government tax revenues have fluctuated wildly over the past year largely because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in late December 2017. Overall, year-over-year growth in state tax revenues was strong in the third quarter of 2018 but weaker than the growth observed in the final quarter of
Updated on March 9, 2022. The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center’s large-scale microsimulation model produces revenue and distribution estimates of the U.S. federal tax system.
The federal tax system imposes a number of excise taxes on goods and services such as gasoline, alcohol, tobacco, air travel, and health care. In fiscal year 2014, the federal government raised $93.4 billion or 0.5 percent of GDP from excise taxes, accounting for about 3 percent of total federal
This policy brief shows that the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses substantially raised federal deficits, but only on a temporary basis. We project that the debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 98 percent, will rise to 190 percent in 2050 under current law, compared to a pre-COVID baseline
This paper attempts first to clarify tax rules concerning charitable contributions by reorganizing section 170 and simplifying the language, where possible, so that the operative rules will be clearer. In addition, a revision of the estate and gift tax provisions, intended to increase uniformity,
NOTE : This is a corrected version of the analysis originally published October 15, 2020. This brief updates estimates of the revenue and distributional effects of former vice president Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign tax proposals. Biden’s spending proposals would also have important distributional and
This paper gives an overview of the TPC’s methodology for dynamic analysis of tax proposals. Following the practice of official government estimators, we use a Keynesian model to estimate the short-term effects of policy changes on output relative to its full-employment level. That model assumes
Tax-exempt organizations are subsidized relative to taxable organizations because income related to furthering their core mission is excluded from income tax. The value of this subsidy is unclear. There is no government-provided estimate, and the tax benefit for any organization depends on the
Tax policy is one of the most challenging and controversial components of state governance. Determining how and from whom to collect revenue involves questions of equity, fairness, efficiency, and simplicity. As a result, states often create special tax commissions before attempting major tax
Introducing a federal consumption tax as a replacement for the employer payroll tax would achieve the intended policy goals of prior consumption tax proposals while overcoming their policy shortcomings. The base and design of the consumption and employer payroll taxes are closely related,
Cuts in top state income taxes are intended to raise economic growth, but could instead force punishing spending cuts, as revenues fall and states confront borrowing constraints. Previous work shows no clear impact of state taxes on growth. In new research, we build on a widely cited study that
Although it is generally blind with respect to race, the tax code can create racial disparities when factors that affect tax liability are correlated with race. In this working paper, we provide new evidence on racial differences in marriage penalties and bonuses in the income tax, using data from