Skip to main content
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Briefing Book
  • Resources
  • About
  • Contact
  • Support
  • Fiscal Facts
Twitter
Facebook
Logo Site
  • Topics
    • Individual Taxes
    • Business Taxes
    • Federal Budget and Economy
    • State and Local Issues
    • Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms
  • TaxVox Blog
  • Research & Commentary
  • Laws & Proposals
  • Model Estimates
  • Statistics
  • Features
Brief

The Growth Mirage: State Tax Cuts Do Not Automatically Lead to Economic Growth

William G. Gale, Aaron Krupkin, Kim S. Rueben
September 11, 2015
Download PDFPrint
Share

Primary tasks

  • Overview(active tab)
  • Full Report
  • Media Mentions

Abstract

Cuts in top state income taxes are intended to raise economic growth, but could instead force punishing spending cuts, as revenues fall and states confront borrowing constraints. Previous work shows no clear impact of state taxes on growth. In new research, we build on a widely cited study that identifies a robust negative relationship between tax rates and state growth. We find that the negative effects disappear when we extend the sample beyond 2000 and that the relationship is unstable over time and across taxes. Likewise, examination of recent state tax cuts reveals little evidence of tax cuts driving growth.

Research Area

State and Local Issues State Economic Development Strategies State and local taxes
To reuse content from the Tax Policy Center, visit copyright.com, search for the publications, choose from a list of licenses, and complete the transaction.

Meet the Experts

  • William G. Gale
    Codirector
  • Aaron Krupkin
  • Kim S. Rueben
    Sol Price Fellow
Research report

New Evidence on The Effect of The TCJA On the Housing Market

Robert McClelland, Livia Mucciolo, Safia Sayed
March 30, 2022
  • Donate Today
  • Topics
  • TaxVox Blog
  • Research & Commentary
  • Laws & Proposals
  • Model Estimates
  • Statistics
  • Privacy Policy
  • Newsletters
Twitter
Facebook
  • © Urban Institute, Brookings Institution, and individual authors, 2022.