Firm migration is seen as a barometer of business climate and economic health. State and local governments feel the pressure to retain and attract jobs, often by competing using economic development packages. To better understand local employment changes, and the prevalence of job migration, we...
The first edition of Urban’s new State Tax and Economic Review finds total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the final quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. The largest increases were in individual income tax revenues. State government tax revenue grew mostly in...
Administrative tax data contain a wealth of information that is potentially valuable for research and analysis. However, the legal and ethical imperative to protect taxpayer privacy has restricted their access to a small number of government analysts and select researchers. We propose to develop...
Recent tax cuts and the relaxation of spending caps on much of discretionary spending have added massively to the federal debt. Neither political party is showing much interest in controlling deficits and unless there are large changes in fiscal policies we are firmly on a road to a fiscal...
In this study, we explore how strict balanced budget requirements (BBRs) and tax or expenditure limits (TELs) influence states’ decisions to either cut spending or raise revenues in response to surprise deficits and whether this relationship changed following the onset of the Great Recession. We...
This speech was delivered before the Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions in Seoul, South Korea on July 4, 2018.
American places are pulling apart from one another—economically, socially, and politically. Declining regional income convergence, increasing geographic concentration of joblessness, and an increasing awareness of the social costs of long-term joblessness and economic isolation have led many...
Cities are where people come together to work, live, and thrive. Cities also face a host of fiscal challenges, many of which were laid bare in the Great Recession. Given these challenges, stakeholders of many kinds have sought more and better indicators of city fiscal health. This paper provides...
The Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 extends major individual income and estate tax provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. The bill would reduce federal revenues by $631 billion within the budget window (...
Conventional estimates that do not fully account for this rebalancing overstate the increase in revenues associated with eliminating the MID and will also overstate the progressivity of eliminating the MID, because households with higher levels of non-residential assets might respond by selling...
Footloose or Stuck in Place? Firm Mobility across Six Metropolitan Areas
Firm migration is seen as a barometer of business climate and economic health. State and local governments feel the pressure to retain and attract jobs, often by competing using economic development packages. To better understand local employment changes, and the prevalence of job migration, we...
State Tax and Economic Review, 2018 Quarter 1
The first edition of Urban’s new State Tax and Economic Review finds total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the final quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. The largest increases were in individual income tax revenues. State government tax revenue grew mostly in...
Safely Expanding Research Access to Administrative Tax Data: Creating a Synthetic Public Use File and a Validation Server
Administrative tax data contain a wealth of information that is potentially valuable for research and analysis. However, the legal and ethical imperative to protect taxpayer privacy has restricted their access to a small number of government analysts and select researchers. We propose to develop...
A U.S. Fiscal Crisis?
Recent tax cuts and the relaxation of spending caps on much of discretionary spending have added massively to the federal debt. Neither political party is showing much interest in controlling deficits and unless there are large changes in fiscal policies we are firmly on a road to a fiscal...
Budget Processes and the Great Recession
In this study, we explore how strict balanced budget requirements (BBRs) and tax or expenditure limits (TELs) influence states’ decisions to either cut spending or raise revenues in response to surprise deficits and whether this relationship changed following the onset of the Great Recession. We...
The Role of Experts in Today's Political Climate
This speech was delivered before the Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions in Seoul, South Korea on July 4, 2018.
Harnessing The U.S. Intergovernmental Grant System for Place-Based Assistance In Recession and Recovery
American places are pulling apart from one another—economically, socially, and politically. Declining regional income convergence, increasing geographic concentration of joblessness, and an increasing awareness of the social costs of long-term joblessness and economic isolation have led many...
Predicting Municipal Fiscal Distress: Aspiration or Reality
Cities are where people come together to work, live, and thrive. Cities also face a host of fiscal challenges, many of which were laid bare in the Great Recession. Given these challenges, stakeholders of many kinds have sought more and better indicators of city fiscal health. This paper provides...
Analysis of the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018
The Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 extends major individual income and estate tax provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. The bill would reduce federal revenues by $631 billion within the budget window (...
The Mortgage Interest Deduction: Revenue and Distributional Effects
Conventional estimates that do not fully account for this rebalancing overstate the increase in revenues associated with eliminating the MID and will also overstate the progressivity of eliminating the MID, because households with higher levels of non-residential assets might respond by selling...