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Tax Policy Center

Research & Commentary

Brief
State and Local Issues

State Revenue Forecasts Before COVID-19 and Directions Forward

The global pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak will dramatically affect state tax revenues over the next months and possibly years. This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic, as documented in governors’ proposed...

April 2, 2020
Lucy Dadayan
Commentary

How to Shore Up State and Local Budgets during a Coronavirus Recession

As the potential economic impact of a global pandemic starts to crystalize, there has rightly been a lot of discussion about how individuals and businesses will fare—and what governments can do to support them. But what will happen to government finances? In particular, what happens to U.S....

April 1, 2020
Therese J. McGuireKim S. Rueben
Brief
Federal Budget and Economy

The Decade of Deficits: The Latest Ominous Projections from the Congressional Budget Office

In January, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its first economic and budgetary outlook of the decade. Even prior to the recent COVID-19 crisis, along with its attendant impact on the budget, CBO projected a deficit of more than $1 trillion for fiscal year 2020. The federal budget is...

March 27, 2020
Erald KolasiC. Eugene Steuerle
Brief
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms

An Analysis of Senator Sanders's Tax Proposals

In this brief, we estimate the revenue and distributional effects of Senator Bernie Sanders’s 2020 campaign tax proposals. We show the revenue and distributional implications of tax proposals excluding those related to his Medicare for All plan. We also report the revenue estimates (but not the...

March 19, 2020
TPC Staff
Brief
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms

An Analysis of Former Vice President Biden’s Tax Proposals

In this brief, we estimate the revenue and distributional effects of former vice president Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign tax proposals, based on information released by the Biden campaign and conversations with campaign staff. We analyze Biden’s proposals as of February 23, 2020...

March 5, 2020
Gordon B. MerminSurachai KhitatrakunChenxi LuThornton MathesonJeffrey Rohaly
Research report
State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2019 Quarter 3

State and local government tax revenues showed normal growth in the third quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018, much weaker growth in the first quarter of 2019, and robust growth in the second quarter of 2019. Most of the volatility in the prior quarters...

February 24, 2020
Lucy Dadayan
Brief
Individual Taxes

Extending the Earned Income Tax Credit: How the Economic Security Project’s Cost-of-Living Refund Would Affect Family Caregivers

In recognition of the important work family caregivers do, the Economic Security Project (ESP) has proposed that they be eligible for the cost-of-living refund, an expansion of the earned income tax credit (EITC). Among other changes to the EITC, the cost-of-living refund would extend benefits...

January 30, 2020
Elaine MaagMelissa M. FavreaultNikhita Airi
Brief
Individual Taxes

Debt and Politics: Integrating America’s Fiscal Outlook with New Campaign Proposals

Congress and the president have put the federal budget on track for unsustainable and rising deficits without end. Mandatory spending programs—those that continue automatically without new appropriations—are expanding at a faster rate than discretionary spending programs, while total spending...

January 27, 2020
Erald KolasiC. Eugene Steuerle
Research report
Individual Taxes

Are Tax Expenditures Worth the Money?

In this report, we evaluate major federal tax expenditures. We distinguish between tax expenditures that are effectively spending programs and those that are departures from a comprehensive income tax but are not essentially spending substitutes. Most major tax expenditures have some policy...

January 22, 2020
Frank SammartinoEric Toder
Brief
Individual Taxes

How Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Change Tax Expenditures?

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced tax expenditures but by much less than the Tax Reform Act of 1986, relative to the size of the economy. In this report, we review the major changes from the new law to individual (nonbusiness) and business tax expenditures. The former category includes tax...

January 22, 2020
Frank SammartinoEric Toder

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