Fluctuations in state revenue, especially unexpected ones, can compromise state services and contribute to overall fiscal instability. This fact sheet discusses the causes of state revenue volatility and how state tax and budget policy can either contribute to, or mitigate, it.
Supermajority budget rules require a state to obtain more than a majority vote of the legislature, typically two-thirds or three-fifths of the votes, to pass a budget bill. This fact sheet reviews evidence on how supermajority budget rules affect fiscal outcomes, such as late budgets and...
Tax and expenditure limits (TELs) are self-imposed restrictions that state governments create to restrict the amount they can tax or spend. This fact sheet describes how TELs vary across states and discusses evidence on whether TELs achieve their objective of restraining government growth.
States adopt a variety of budget practices to help define spending priorities and influence fiscal outcomes. However, not all budget practices achieve the desired fiscal objectives, and some practices may compromise states’ long-term fiscal sustainability. This report discusses evidence from the...
In our research, we examine two alcohol excise tax increases enacted by Illinois in 1999 and in 2009. Using the synthetic control method, we find no evidence that either tax increase reduces fatal alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes for the whole of Illinois, although we do find evidence of a...
The Tax Policy Center has released distributional estimates of the Senate version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the Senate Finance Committee on November 16, 2017. We find the bill would reduce taxes on average for all income groups in both 2019 and 2025. In general, higher income...
The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the US House of Representatives on November 16, 2017. We find the legislation would boost US economic output by 0.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, 0.3 percent...
In Part 1 of this exercise, TPC estimated the revenue and distributional effects of proposals that wouldeliminate almost all income tax expenditures to lower individual and corporate tax rates and maintain long-run revenue neutrality for the Federal tax system. The results of Part 1 showed that...
The Tax Policy Center has released new distributional estimates of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to reflect the bill as passed by the Committee on Ways and Means of the US House of Representatives on November 9, 2017. The changes from the bill as originally introduced have a relatively minor effect...
NOTE:This is a corrected version of the analysis originally published November 6, 2017.
The Tax Policy Center has produced preliminary distributional estimates of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as introduced on November 3, 2017. We find the legislation would reduce...
Revenue Volatility
Fluctuations in state revenue, especially unexpected ones, can compromise state services and contribute to overall fiscal instability. This fact sheet discusses the causes of state revenue volatility and how state tax and budget policy can either contribute to, or mitigate, it.
Supermajority Budget and Tax Rules
Supermajority budget rules require a state to obtain more than a majority vote of the legislature, typically two-thirds or three-fifths of the votes, to pass a budget bill. This fact sheet reviews evidence on how supermajority budget rules affect fiscal outcomes, such as late budgets and...
Tax and Expenditure Limits
Tax and expenditure limits (TELs) are self-imposed restrictions that state governments create to restrict the amount they can tax or spend. This fact sheet describes how TELs vary across states and discusses evidence on whether TELs achieve their objective of restraining government growth.
Sustainable Budgeting in the States: Evidence on State Budget Institutions and Practices
States adopt a variety of budget practices to help define spending priorities and influence fiscal outcomes. However, not all budget practices achieve the desired fiscal objectives, and some practices may compromise states’ long-term fiscal sustainability. This report discusses evidence from the...
State Alcohol Excise Taxes May Have Little Effect on Drunk Driving Fatalities
In our research, we examine two alcohol excise tax increases enacted by Illinois in 1999 and in 2009. Using the synthetic control method, we find no evidence that either tax increase reduces fatal alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes for the whole of Illinois, although we do find evidence of a...
Distributional Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as Passed by the Senate Finance Committee
The Tax Policy Center has released distributional estimates of the Senate version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the Senate Finance Committee on November 16, 2017. We find the bill would reduce taxes on average for all income groups in both 2019 and 2025. In general, higher income...
Macroeconomic Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as Passed by the House of Representatives
The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the US House of Representatives on November 16, 2017. We find the legislation would boost US economic output by 0.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, 0.3 percent...
The Tax Reform Trade-off: Eliminating Tax Expenditures, Reducing Rates (Part 2)
In Part 1 of this exercise, TPC estimated the revenue and distributional effects of proposals that wouldeliminate almost all income tax expenditures to lower individual and corporate tax rates and maintain long-run revenue neutrality for the Federal tax system. The results of Part 1 showed that...
Distributional Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as Passed by the House Ways and Means Committee
The Tax Policy Center has released new distributional estimates of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to reflect the bill as passed by the Committee on Ways and Means of the US House of Representatives on November 9, 2017. The changes from the bill as originally introduced have a relatively minor effect...
Preliminary Distributional Analysis of the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act"
NOTE: This is a corrected version of the analysis originally published November 6, 2017.
The Tax Policy Center has produced preliminary distributional estimates of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as introduced on November 3, 2017. We find the legislation would reduce...