We present new estimates of the budget outlook, based on the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office and the Medicare and Social Security Trustee reports. The medium-term and long-term budget outlook have not changed appreciably since last year. Under reasonable assumptions, the...
Many industrialized countries face significant medium-term fiscal deficits and unsustainable long-term fiscal trajectories. The recent fiscal crises in Greece and other countries are a stark reminder of the costs of ignoring these issues. The looming fiscal shortfalls and borrowing requirements...
This paper presents evidence from a randomized field experiment to evaluate the longterm impact of an incentive for household saving. We examine the effect on homeownership of an Individual Development Account (IDA) program which ran from 1998 to 2003 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The IDA program provided...
The United States faces a large medium-term federal budget deficit and an unsustainable long-term fiscal gap. Left unattended, these shortfalls will hobble and eventually cripple the economy. The only plausible way to close the gap is through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases....
This paper reviews the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy. Although fiscal interventions aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economy have returned to common use, their efficacy remains controversial. This paper reviews the debate...
On November 29, 2010, TPC co-director William Gale held a live webchat on the Washington Post website to discuss his November 28th Washington Post piece, Five Myths About Cutting the Deficit.
Budgets may be boring, but the stakes before us are exceedingly high. As we go about reducing the deficit, who will pay which taxes? How will we defend our country? And how will we treat our elderly? Unfortunately, questionable thinking and outright distortions by critics from across the...
Recent analysis by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) shows the impact of several tax pieces included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The...
Debates about corporate income tax cuts follow a familiar script. Republicans claim that rank-and-file workers benefit . Democrats argue that affluent shareholders reap the gains...
Over the past three decades, the United States has gone from taxing roughly half of closely held business (that is, firms other than corporations) and...
The murder of George Floyd, in May 2020, sparked a national reckoning and renewed attention to issues of racial equity and justice. This long-overdue awakening...
As of this morning, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 1.33 percent. The yield on TIPS bonds–which are adjusted for inflation–was negative. These astonishingly...
Last week, Congress and President Trump enacted the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, the largest aid package in American history...
The Congressional Budget Office just projected a series of $1 trillion budget deficits—as far as the eye can see. Narrowing that deficit will require not...
Martin Feldstein, who died earlier this week, was an intellectual giant who transformed modern public finance and tax policy analysis. He also was a kind,...
As the partial shutdown of the federal government enters its 17th day, the stakes are rising. Shutdowns have numerous negative economic and political effects, but...
The return of divided government and the early stages of the next presidential election create enormous uncertainty about how 2019 will go. As Yogi Berra...
