Research report

The 2021 temporary expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) is unprecedented in its reach and is predicted to cut American child poverty by more than half. The expanded CTC provides families with $3,600 for every child in the household under the age of six and $3,000 for every child between the...

September 22, 2021
Leah HamiltonStephen RollMathieu DespardElaine MaagYung Chun
Research report

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) instituted the most substantial changes in taxation in decades and was designed to boost the economy via supply-side incentives. This paper reviews these changes and examines the impacts on economic aggregates through 2019. The Act clearly reduced revenue...

July 6, 2021
William G. GaleClaire Haldeman
Research report

Interest rates on government debt have fallen in many countries over the last several decades, with markets indicating that rates may stay low well into the future.  It is by now well understood that sustained low interest rates can change the nature of long-run fiscal...

September 23, 2021
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale
Research report

The long-term shift in the US retirement system from defined benefit pension (DB) plans to retirement saving accounts such as 401(k) plans and IRAs has transferred significant financial risks to workers, many of whom are ill-equipped to handle the contingencies. Collective defined contribution (...

September 21, 2021
J. Mark IwryDavid C. JohnChristopher PulliamWilliam G. Gale
Research report

The existence of small and inactive accounts is a largely inevitable feature of the US retirement saving system, which features employer-based retirement plans, individually managed accounts, and automatic enrollment. We consider the issues raised by these accounts, including the...

September 21, 2021
David C. JohnJ. Mark IwryChristopher PulliamWilliam G. Gale
Research report

States reported strong revenue growth in the first quarter of 2021, but there is still large variation in revenue performance across states. Over a 12-month period (April 2020 through March 2021), state total tax revenues increased 0.6 percent compared to the same...

September 8, 2021
Lucy Dadayan
Research report

States reported solid revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, but there is large variation across states and across revenue sources. Over a nine-month period (April through December 2020), state total tax revenues declined 2.2 percent compared to the same...

July 7, 2021
Lucy Dadayan
Research report

State taxes were upended in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic as governments shut down large parts of the economy. While overall state tax revenues have fared better than expected since then, state leaders have been closely examining existing tax policies and...

July 13, 2021
Lucy DadayanKim S. Rueben
Research report

This technical brief describes the Tax Policy Center’s international investment and capital model (IICM) of cross-border tax rates. The Devereux-Griffith effective tax rate model underlying the IICM is explained in detail, and preliminary model outputs—effective marginal and average tax rates on...

April 28, 2021
Thornton Matheson
Research report

Over the period between 2013 and 2029, the sum of the estimated budgetary costs of all tax expenditures as a percentage of gross domestic product will range from approximately 8.5 percent in fiscal year 2017 to 6 percent in fiscal years 2024 and 2025. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA)...

April 20, 2021
Sarah CalameEric Toder