Research report

This paper was updated on July 27, 2017 to incorporate the overlapping generations model estimates produced by the Penn Wharton Budget Model.


The Trump administration released an outline of...
July 13, 2017
TPC Staff
Research report

This paper presents estimates of the macroeconomic effects, and resulting dynamic impact on revenues, of the House GOP tax plan announced in June 2016. The estimates were produced in two ways. One set of estimates uses a combination of TPC’s Keynesian model (to project short-run effects on...

June 30, 2017
Benjamin R. Page
Research report

Differences in state taxes paid and benefits received for immigrants and native-born Americans are driven by differences in demographic characteristics. Spending on immigrants is somewhat greater primarily because they have more school age children. Fiscal impacts also vary by state. This brief...

June 6, 2017
Kim S. RuebenSarah Gault
Research report

A tax deduction intended to encourage conservation of environmentally important land and historic buildings has become a lucrative way for real estate developers to finance development projects—cheating the government out of billions of dollars of revenue and in some cases doing little to...

June 1, 2017
Adam Looney
Research report

Income volatility may complicate tax filing and predicting eligibility for critical tax benefits, such as the earned income tax credit. Half of all working-age adults¬—and 64 percent of low-income, working-age adults—have household income that for at least one month of the year will spike above...

May 25, 2017
Elaine MaagH. Elizabeth PetersAnthony HannaganCary Lou
Research report

States invest in three areas to encourage job and wage growth: the marketplace, the workforce, and the community. Marketplace investment includes general business support and finance assistance, small-business procurement programs, and tax incentives. Workforce programs develop and train the...

April 24, 2017
Norton FrancisMegan Randall
Research report

This research report was originally published by the Columbia Journal of Tax Law. The publication is updated version of, "An Analysis of the...

April 5, 2017
Leonard E. BurmanJames R. NunnsBenjamin R. PageJeffrey RohalyJoseph Rosenberg
Research report

States vary in how much governments collect in revenue and spend on goods and services. To understand the sources of these differences, we examined what states could raise (revenue capacity) and would spend (expenditure need) if they followed national averages, taking into account their own...

March 8, 2016
Tracy GordonRichard C. AuxierJohn Iselin
Research report

This paper gives an overview of the TPC’s methodology for dynamic analysis of tax proposals. Following the practice of official government estimators, we use a Keynesian model to estimate the short-term effects of policy changes on output relative to its full-employment level. That model assumes...

April 5, 2017
Benjamin R. PageKent Smetters
Research report

The synthetic control method is an increasingly popular method for state policy evaluation. It provides quantitative support for case studies by creating a synthetic control region that simulates what the outcome path of a region would be if it did not undergo a particular policy intervention....

March 29, 2017
Robert McClellandSarah Gault