The National Retail Sales Tax: What Would the Rate Have To Be?

H.R. 25 would replace federal taxes with a 23 percent tax-inclusive (30
percent tax-exclusive) sales tax on private consumption, household
interest payments, and government spending, and give households payments to offset taxes on consumption up to the poverty line. This paper shows that even if there were no avoidance or evasion, setting the rate at 23 percent (tax-inclusive) would reduce revenues by $7 trillion relative to current law. The required tax rate to hold the government and revenue constant would be 31 percent tax-inclusive (44 percent tax-exclusive) if there were no evasion or avoidance and much higher under more plausible assumptions.