Research report
December 22, 2015
Primary tasks
Abstract
NOTE: TPC updated its analysis of Donald Trump's tax plan on October 18, 2016. The revised analysis is available here . The estimates in this 2015 report should no longer be cited. Please use the updated estimates from the October 18 analysis.
On July 12, 2017, TPC released implications of President Trump's tax proposals based on the administration's April 26, 2017 outline; please see that analysis here.
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Donald Trump’s tax proposal. His plan would significantly reduce marginal tax rates on individuals and businesses, increase standard deduction amounts to nearly four times current levels, and curtail many tax expenditures. His proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, although the largest benefits, in dollar and percentage terms, would go to the highest-income households. The plan would reduce federal revenues by $9.5 trillion over its first decade before accounting for added interest costs or considering macroeconomic feedback effects. The plan would improve incentives to work, save, and invest. However, unless it is accompanied by very large spending cuts, it could increase the national debt by nearly 80 percent of gross domestic product by 2036, offsetting some or all of the incentive effects of the tax cuts.
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