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Alan J. Auerbach

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Research report

We provide estimates of the federal budget outlook based on new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis. CBO projects a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 percent by fiscal year 2029 under current law, up from 78 percent today. Under a “current policy” scenario similar to CBO’s alternative fiscal...

February 12, 2019
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. GaleAaron Krupkin
Journal Article

In this article, Auerbach, Gale, and Krupkin discuss the federal budget outlook, examining long-term debt and the fiscal gap using recently updated data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security and Medicare boards of trustees.

July 30, 2018
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. GaleAaron Krupkin
Research report

We examine the budget outlook, given new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections that reflect the recently enacted tax bill and spending deals. The prospect of routine trillion-dollar deficits has dominated public response to CBO’s report, but the underlying problem is even more serious....

April 23, 2018
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. GaleAaron Krupkin
Research report

While policy makers and news headlines focus on debates about health care and tax policy, the U.S. fiscal outlook remains troubling and is a constraint against which new proposals should be judged. Budget deficits appear manageable in the short run, but the nation’s debt-GDP ratio is already...

August 7, 2017
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale
Research report

New information from the Congressional Budget Office allows an update of the fiscal outlook. While deficits are manageable in the short run, the debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms. Under “current policy,” we project the ratio will rise to 96 percent by 2027 and 154...

January 29, 2017
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale
Brief

This essay is the tenth in a twelve-essay colloquium on the effect of low interest rates on the economy. To read other essays in the series, click here. The original version of this paper was...

December 11, 2016
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. GaleAaron Krupkin
Research report

After worsening sharply during the Great Recession, the long-term fiscal outlook generally improved through 2015, due to a combination of legislative acts and lower projected growth of health care spending. The same factors and the slow but steady economic recovery helped reduce short-term...

February 24, 2016
William G. GaleAlan J. Auerbach
Research report

Over the past few years, the U.S. long-term fiscal situation has improved somewhat and short-term deficits have come down. Perhaps as a result, policy makers have largely turned their attention away from dealing with fiscal issues. The fiscal problem may well be forgotten, but its not gone....

March 6, 2014
William G. GaleAlan J. Auerbach
Research report

While political leaders remain tied up in discussions of government shutdowns and debt ceiling increases, we focus on the medium- and long-term budget outlook, where more serious challenges lie. With the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act, the imposition of the sequester, and changes in...

October 1, 2013
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale

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