In 2017, the Tax Policy Center published “The Synthetic Control Method as a Tool to Understand State Policy,” a guide for using the synthetic control method (SCM) as a quantitative adjunct to case studies. With it, analysts can evaluate cases in which there is a single treated unit and no...
In 2010, Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller used the synthetic control method to analyze a cigarette tax implemented in California in 1988. Since then, this method has been increasingly popular, with the original article garnering more than four thousand citations. Part of the synthetic control...
This paper examines how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will affect the US energy sector. It combines qualitative analysis of a range of TCJA provisions with estimates from the Tax Policy Center’s Investment and Capital Model of how a narrower set of provisions will change marginal effective...
The American Rescue Plan temporarily increased the child tax credit (CTC) in 2021, including extending the credit to families who had not previously filed tax returns. The Internal Revenue Service automatically sent monthly payments of the CTC to families that had filed a tax return in 2019 or...
Total state tax revenue collections increased 24.1 percent in nominal terms and 17.2 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 relative to a year earlier.
Although state revenue collections have grown rapidly in the most recent months and reported revenue growth is widespread...
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) sharply reduced effective corporate income tax rates on equity-financed US investment. This paper examines the reform’s impact on US inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in property, plant and equipment (PPE) by foreign-owned US companies....
Standard analysis of the corporate income tax assumes shareholders bear the burden of taxes on excess returns. But evidence shows that firms share rents with workers, especially high-income workers, which implies that these workers bear some of the burden as well. Using the Tax Policy Center...
Legislated changes affecting capital income have dramatically reduced the federal income tax base and revenues over the past 25 years. A significant share of capital income is never subject to tax. The massive “leakage” between the generation of economic income and the reporting of income on tax...
The 2021 temporary expansion of the child tax credit (CTC) was unprecedented in its reach, lifting 3.7 million children out of poverty as of December 2021. It provided families with up to $3,600 for every child in the household under the age of six, and up to $3,000 for every child between the...
An Update on the Synthetic Control Method as a Tool to Understand State Policy
In 2017, the Tax Policy Center published “The Synthetic Control Method as a Tool to Understand State Policy,” a guide for using the synthetic control method (SCM) as a quantitative adjunct to case studies. With it, analysts can evaluate cases in which there is a single treated unit and no...
What is the Synthetic Control Method?
In 2010, Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller used the synthetic control method to analyze a cigarette tax implemented in California in 1988. Since then, this method has been increasingly popular, with the original article garnering more than four thousand citations. Part of the synthetic control...
Effects of 2017 US Federal Tax Overhaul on the Energy Sector
This paper examines how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will affect the US energy sector. It combines qualitative analysis of a range of TCJA provisions with estimates from the Tax Policy Center’s Investment and Capital Model of how a narrower set of provisions will change marginal effective...
Early Lessons on Increasing Participation in The Child Tax Credit
The American Rescue Plan temporarily increased the child tax credit (CTC) in 2021, including extending the credit to families who had not previously filed tax returns. The Internal Revenue Service automatically sent monthly payments of the CTC to families that had filed a tax return in 2019 or...
State Tax and Economic Review, 2021 Quarter 4
Total state tax revenue collections increased 24.1 percent in nominal terms and 17.2 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 relative to a year earlier.
Although state revenue collections have grown rapidly in the most recent months and reported revenue growth is widespread...
The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Foreign Investment in the United States
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) sharply reduced effective corporate income tax rates on equity-financed US investment. This paper examines the reform’s impact on US inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in property, plant and equipment (PPE) by foreign-owned US companies....
Rethinking the Corporate Income Tax: The Role of Rent Sharing
Standard analysis of the corporate income tax assumes shareholders bear the burden of taxes on excess returns. But evidence shows that firms share rents with workers, especially high-income workers, which implies that these workers bear some of the burden as well. Using the Tax Policy Center...
Child Tax Credit Recipients Experienced a Larger Decline in Food Insecurity and a Similar Change in Employment as Nonrecipients Between 2020 and 2021
Taxing Capital Income
Legislated changes affecting capital income have dramatically reduced the federal income tax base and revenues over the past 25 years. A significant share of capital income is never subject to tax. The massive “leakage” between the generation of economic income and the reporting of income on tax...
The Impacts of the 2021 Expanded Child Tax Credit on Family Employment, Nutrition, And Financial Well-Being
The 2021 temporary expansion of the child tax credit (CTC) was unprecedented in its reach, lifting 3.7 million children out of poverty as of December 2021. It provided families with up to $3,600 for every child in the household under the age of six, and up to $3,000 for every child between the...