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Research report

New Estimates of the Budget Outlook

Plus Ça Change, Plus C'est la Même Chose

Alan J. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Peter Orszag
April 17, 2006
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Abstract

Despite substantial attention given to fiscal policy concerns in recent years, the federal government's fiscal status has continued to deteriorate, with the enactment of tax cuts, a massive new Medicare entitlement, increased spending on defense and homeland security, and related economic developments. This paper provides new estimates of the nation's fiscal status over both the 10-year and long-term horizon, based on the most recent (January 2006) Congressional Budget Office official budget figures (CBO 2006). Our general conclusions are not surprising: under plausible assumptions, the nation faces significant short- and medium-term deficits and massive long-term shortfalls. Dealing with these problems will require spending cuts or tax increases that are far beyond the scale of anything currently considered politically palatable.

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Federal Budget and Economy
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Understanding the Maze of Recent Child and Work Incentive Proposals

Elaine Maag, Nikhita Airi
June 1, 2020
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