Faith-Based Budgeting

In the face of a stagnant economy, a war, a rapidly deteriorating short-term fiscal outlook, and a substantial long-term fiscal problem, the Bush Administration has proposed massive, regressive, permanent tax cuts that it acknowledges are unsustainable. This paper shows that under realistic assumptions, the Administration's proposals would run deficits outside the retirement trust funds of $6.4 trillion over the next decade and 4.3 percent of GDP or more in every year for the foreseeable future. This program represents a massive fiscal gamble that is unlikely to succeed.