Total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the last three quarters of 2018. States collected slightly over $1 trillion in tax revenues in fiscal year 2018, a gain of 7.8 percent over 2017. But the revenue growth was uneven among the states and across revenue sources. Much...
The federal tax treatment of charitable giving and the nonprofit sector is at an inflection point. Following enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, the number of taxpayers who will claim a charitable deduction will decline substantially. What does that mean for charitable giving and the...
Administrative tax data contain a wealth of information that is potentially valuable for research and analysis. However, the legal and ethical imperative to protect taxpayer privacy has restricted their access to a small number of government analysts and select researchers. We propose to develop...
Cities are where people come together to work, live, and thrive. Cities also face a host of fiscal challenges, many of which were laid bare in the Great Recession. Given these challenges, stakeholders of many kinds have sought more and better indicators of city fiscal health. This paper provides...
The Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 extends major individual income and estate tax provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. The bill would reduce federal revenues by $631 billion within the budget window (...
Conventional estimates that do not fully account for this rebalancing overstate the increase in revenues associated with eliminating the MID and will also overstate the progressivity of eliminating the MID, because households with higher levels of non-residential assets might respond by selling...
Adjusting Social Security retirement ages as people live longer would significantly improve trust fund balances over the long run, though it would have only modest effects in the short term. By the 75th year, Social Security actuaries project that raising the retirement age by indexing it to...
As people live longer, they spend more time in retirement, straining Social Security’s finances. This brief outlines the implications of three approaches to adjusting Social Security for longer lives: making no adjustment, which has applied over most of Social Security’s history; keeping...
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) missed an opportunity to help low-income childless workers, very low-income families with children, and families with young children – all groups where investments could be particularly productive. The child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC)...
After one year of the Trump administration, we assess the fiscal path implied by budget policies that the president and Congress have so far put in place. Using a new framework that holds lawmakers accountable for reforms taken and not taken, we project that over the coming decade, nearly all...
Another Stellar Quarter of State Revenue Growth, But the Pace Is Slowing Down
Total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the last three quarters of 2018. States collected slightly over $1 trillion in tax revenues in fiscal year 2018, a gain of 7.8 percent over 2017. But the revenue growth was uneven among the states and across revenue sources. Much...
Reforming Charitable Tax Incentives: Assessing Evidence and Policy Options
The federal tax treatment of charitable giving and the nonprofit sector is at an inflection point. Following enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, the number of taxpayers who will claim a charitable deduction will decline substantially. What does that mean for charitable giving and the...
Safely Expanding Research Access to Administrative Tax Data: Creating a Synthetic Public Use File and a Validation Server
Administrative tax data contain a wealth of information that is potentially valuable for research and analysis. However, the legal and ethical imperative to protect taxpayer privacy has restricted their access to a small number of government analysts and select researchers. We propose to develop...
Predicting Municipal Fiscal Distress: Aspiration or Reality
Cities are where people come together to work, live, and thrive. Cities also face a host of fiscal challenges, many of which were laid bare in the Great Recession. Given these challenges, stakeholders of many kinds have sought more and better indicators of city fiscal health. This paper provides...
Analysis of the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018
The Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 extends major individual income and estate tax provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. The bill would reduce federal revenues by $631 billion within the budget window (...
The Mortgage Interest Deduction: Revenue and Distributional Effects
Conventional estimates that do not fully account for this rebalancing overstate the increase in revenues associated with eliminating the MID and will also overstate the progressivity of eliminating the MID, because households with higher levels of non-residential assets might respond by selling...
How Would Indexing for Improvements in Life Expectancy Affect Trust Fund Balances?
Adjusting Social Security retirement ages as people live longer would significantly improve trust fund balances over the long run, though it would have only modest effects in the short term. By the 75th year, Social Security actuaries project that raising the retirement age by indexing it to...
How Should Social Security Adjust When People Live Longer?
As people live longer, they spend more time in retirement, straining Social Security’s finances. This brief outlines the implications of three approaches to adjusting Social Security for longer lives: making no adjustment, which has applied over most of Social Security’s history; keeping...
Who Benefits from Expanding the EITC or CTC?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) missed an opportunity to help low-income childless workers, very low-income families with children, and families with young children – all groups where investments could be particularly productive. The child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC)...
Where Is the Budget Headed One Year into the Trump Administration?
After one year of the Trump administration, we assess the fiscal path implied by budget policies that the president and Congress have so far put in place. Using a new framework that holds lawmakers accountable for reforms taken and not taken, we project that over the coming decade, nearly all...