Terrific debate at a Tax Policy Center conference I moderated today on technology and tax filing. The crux of the argument: Should the IRS fill out your tax return for you? In one corner: TPC co-director Bill Gale, who argued that technology makes it possible for the IRS to take a first pass at the returns of millions of Americans. The agency would not have the last word—you could make changes before accepting the return. But the taxman could give you a head start by filling in your wage income, exemptions, and standard deduction and perhaps even figuring some other deductions and credits. This, he says, could be a huge benefit for those who file Forms 1040A and 1040EZ.

My best guess is that the top tax rate on capital gains and dividends in 2013 will be almost 24 percent—a significant increase over today’s 15 percent rate. As a result, the decade-long tax holiday for investors is coming to a gradual end. At the moment, the fate of all of these tax rates is a bit uncertain. But here is the recipe for big tax increases on investments: Take the tax hikes included in the newly-enacted health law. Combine with other tax changes President Obama has proposed in his 2011 budget. Add huge deficits and the scheduled expiration of the Bush tax cuts in less than nine months. The result is likely to be a big increase in taxes on capital, at least for the wealthiest investors.

We’ve updated earlier estimates of how the various subsidies in the health reform law affect the insurance market for both employers and workers. And the results remain quite dramatic: It appears that the new law will make it beneficial for many employers to drop their insurance coverage. In 2014 and beyond, once federal money is available through the insurance exchanges, switching from employer coverage to the exchanges may benefit both employers and workers in a wide range of income levels.

While most everyone else in Washngton was viewing the cherry blossoms or otherwise enjoying a beautiful weekend, I was trapped indoors trying to get a handle on my taxes. Unlike most folks, as described in this great column in the Washington Post on Tax Myths by my Tax Policy Center colleagues Rosanne Altshuler and Bob Williams, I usually do my taxes myself and often without the aid of software. I'm a tax geek, so doing my return on my own gives me an up close and personal look at what I study. Plus I get a charge out of conquering the tax code. I did admit to being a tax geek.

Who knew that so many TaxVox readers would stand up in favor of tax complexity? The other day, I posted on the fact than nearly 90 percent of individual taxpayers have to either pay a professional preparer or buy software to help file their income tax returns. I argued that this was, in effect, a government mandate nearly as onerous as the new, much-reviled, requirement that Americans buy health insurance.

Where, as they say, is the outrage? For all of the indignation over the new health insurance mandate, I am amazed at the serenity at which we accept another (near) mandate: That we must pay somebody to help us do our taxes. The government does not specifically require us to hire paid tax preparers or buy commercial software, of course. But it has, in effect, left millions of taxpayers with no real choice. Congress has created a tax code that makes it nearly impossible for many Americans to file returns without paid help. And even those who could (most non-itemizers for instance) are so intimidated by the whole process that they pay people to help them anyway.

One day soon, I would like to walk into my neighborhood supermarket, load up my cart with goodies and walk out the door. When I’m confronted by security about the matter of paying for the stuff, I’ll just tell them to make everyone else in the store pick up the tab. If I lived in Virginia, I’d tell ‘em to go see Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who says I don’t have to pay.

Health reform is (almost) law. And while the Senate must still agree to a package of technical fixes approved by the House late last night, we now can see historic changes in the way we will buy health insurance. We can also see big new tax increases, at least for some relatively high-income people. But the most important won’t take effect for years. And there’s the rub.

Marty Sullivan of Tax Notes magazine has documented the location of profits of U.S. pharmaceutical companies for years. Each article he writes contains eye-popping figures. Last week’s was no different. In the March 8 issue, Marty used annual reports to chart the before-tax profits of seven large U.S. drug companies over the last decade or so. Here’s the story: between 1997 and 2008, foreign profits of Abbot Laboratories, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer, and Scherling-Plough quadrupled from about $9 billion to $37 billion. Over the same period, their U.S. profits fell by a third from $17 billion to $11 billion. Bottom line: the share of U.S. pharmaceuticals’ profits earned abroad has grown dramatically—from about one-third in the late 1990s to nearly four-fifths in 2008.

I recently reprised my long-standing suggestion to allow taxpayers to deduct charitable gifts made before April 15 on the previous tax year’s tax return. Congress provided the new impetus for this type of proposal by allowing taxpayers to deduct charitable gifts for Haiti relief on 2009 tax returns, even though they were paid in January and February of 2010. It offered a similar proposal in 2005 for donations to tsunami victims. I predicted that Congress would likely accelerate offerings of these one-off accelerated deductions now that precedent was becoming well established.