Baseline Estimates

The Tax Policy Center regularly produces tables showing the distribution of income and federal taxes, effective and marginal tax rates, and other measures of federal taxes. Other tables show estimates of individual tax expenditures, the share of taxpayers who pay no income or payroll tax, the distribution of capital gains and business income, and aspects of the alternative minimum tax. 

Once most TCJA individual income tax provisions expire at the end of 2025, effective federal tax rates are projected to rise from 19.4 percent to 20.4 percent. The figure below shows that the upper income households who benefited the most from the tax cuts generally experience the largest changes when they are reversed.



Follow the links below to view TPC tables covering those and other tax topics.

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes (October 2022)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2011-2031
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2011-2031
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032

Baseline Distribution of Tax Units by Tax Bracket (October 2022)

Baseline Average Effective Tax Rates (October 2022)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2031

Baseline Share of Federal Taxes (October 2022)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032

Baseline Effective Marginal Tax Rates (October 2022)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032

Distribution of Federal Payroll and Income Taxes (December 2022)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032

 

Distribution of Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends (January 2023)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022

 

Distribution of Individual Income Tax on Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends (January 2023)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2032

 

Tax Units with Zero or Negative Income Tax (October 2022)

Distribution of Tax Units that Pay No Individual Income Tax (October 2022)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2021 2022 2023 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2021 2022 2023 2026

 

Estate Tax Returns and Liability (November 2022)

Distribution of Estate Tax Returns, Gross Estate, and Net Estate Tax (November 2022)

By Size of Gross Estate
2022 2023 2025 2026

Baseline Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Tables (October 2022)

Aggregate AMT Projections

 

Aggregate AMT Projections and Recent History

 

Characteristics of AMT Payers

Distribution of Business Taxes and Sources of Flow-Through Business Income (February 2023)

 

Individual Income Tax Expenditures (December 2022)

Partial Exclusion of Social Security Benefits

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Exclusion of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Deduction for State and Local Income and Sales Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Deduction for State and Local Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Deduction for Property Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Deduction for Charitable Contributions

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Preferential Rate on Capital Gains and Dividends

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Preferential Rates and NIIT on Capital Gains and Dividends

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Child Tax Credit (CTC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

CTC, CDCTC, and EITC

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Education Credits and Deduction for Student Loan Interest

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026

 

Sec199A Deduction for Qualified Business Income

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022

 

Retirement Savings Incentives (Present Value Method)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2022 2026
Last updatedMarch 1, 2023