The Tax Policy Center regularly produces tables showing the distribution of income and federal taxes, effective and marginal tax rates, and other measures of federal taxes. Other tables show estimates of individual tax expenditures, the share of taxpayers who pay no income or payroll tax, the distribution of capital gains and business income, and aspects of the alternative minimum tax. These estimates are based on an economic forecast that does not include the potential effects of the economic disruption caused by COVID-19 and do not incorporate the effects of legislation signed into law after March 17, 2020.
Once most TCJA individual income tax provisions expire at the end of 2025, effective federal tax rates are projected to rise from 19.4 percent to 20.4 percent. The figure below shows that the upper income households who benefited the most from the tax cuts generally experience the largest changes when they are reversed.
The tables below show TPC’s most recent estimates as of May 2020. This page will be updated to include additional baseline tables as they are published.
Follow the links below to view TPC tables covering those and other tax topics.
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes (February 2020)
Baseline Distribution of Tax Units by Tax Bracket (February 2020)
Baseline Average Effective Tax Rates (February 2020)
Baseline Share of Federal Taxes (February 2020)
Baseline Effective Marginal Tax Rates (February 2020)
Distribution of Federal Payroll and Income Taxes (March 2020)
Distribution of Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends (May 2020)
| By Expanded Cash Income Level | |||||
| 2019 | |||||
| By Expanded Cash Income Percentile | |||
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Distribution of Individual Income Tax on Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends (May 2020)
Tax Units with Zero or Negative Income Tax (March 2020)
Distribution of Tax Units that Pay No Individual Income Tax (March 2020)
Estate Tax Returns and Liability (December 2020)
Distribution of Estate Tax Returns, Gross Estate, and Net Estate Tax (September 2018)
Baseline Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Tables (March 2020)
Aggregate AMT Projections
Aggregate AMT Projections and Recent History
Characteristics of AMT Payers
Distribution of Business Taxes and Sources of Flow-Through Business Income (April 2020)
| Distribution of Business Income in 2019 | |||||||
| By Statutory Marginal Tax Rate | By Expanded Cash Income Level | By Expanded Cash Income Percentile | |||||
| Distribution of Business Income in 2019 | |||||||
| By Statutory Marginal Tax Rate | By Expanded Cash Income Level | By Expanded Cash Income Percentile | |||||
Individual Income Tax Expenditures (October 2018)
Partial Exclusion of Social Security Benefits
Exclusion of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits
Deduction for State and Local Income and Sales Taxes
Deduction for State and Local Taxes
Deduction for Property Taxes
Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest
Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes
Deduction for Charitable Contributions
Preferential Rate on Capital Gains and Dividends (April 2020)
Preferential Rates and NIIT on Capital Gains and Dividends
Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)
Child Tax Credit (CTC)
Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC)
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
CTC, CDCTC, and EITC
Education Credits and Deduction for Student Loan Interest
Sec199A Deduction for Qualified Business Income
| By Expanded Cash Income Level | |
| 2018 | |
| By Expanded Cash Income Percentile | |
| 2018 | |
