Feature Baseline Estimates
Display Date

The Tax Policy Center regularly produces tables showing the distribution of income and federal taxes, effective and marginal tax rates, and other measures of federal taxes. Other tables show estimates of individual tax expenditures, the share of taxpayers who pay no income or payroll tax, the distribution of capital gains and business income, and aspects of the estate tax and individual alternative minimum tax. 

Follow the links below to view TPC tables covering those and other tax topics (some tables are forthcoming, links will be added when estimates are published).

 

Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA202520262035202520262035

 

Effective Marginal Tax Rates on Wages, Salaries, and Capital Income

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Current Law202520262035202520262035

 

Tax Units with Zero or Negative Income Tax

Pre-OBBBA2024–2035

 

Distribution of Tax Units that Pay No Individual Income Tax

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026

 

Estate Tax Returns and Liability

Pre-OBBBA2024–2035
Current Law2024–2035

 

Distribution of Estate Tax Returns, Gross Estate, and Net Estate Tax

 By Size of Gross Estate
Pre-OBBBA20252026
Current Law20252026

 

Individual Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

Aggregate AMT ProjectionsPre-OBBBACurrent Law
Aggregate AMT Projections and Recent HistoryPre-OBBBACurrent Law
Characteristics of AMT PayersPre-OBBBACurrent Law

 

 

 

Select Individual Income Tax Expenditures

 


Partial Exclusion of Social Security Benefits

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Exclusion of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits and Deduction for Self-Employed Health Insurance Premiums

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Deduction for State and Local Income or Sales Taxes

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 


Deduction for State and Local Income, Sales, and Real Estate Taxes

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 

Deduction for Real Estate Taxes

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest and Real Estate Taxes

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 

 

Deduction for Charitable Contributions

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 

 

Tax Benefit of the Non-Itemizer Deduction for Charitable Contributions

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Current Law2025202620252026

 

 

Itemized and Non-Itemizer Deductions for Charitable Contributions

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Current Law2025202620252026

 

 

Itemized Deductions

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Preferential Rate on Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Preferential Rates on Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends Net of their Inclusion in the Base of the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026


 

Child Tax Credit (CTC)

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 

 

Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC)

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 


Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 


Child Tax Credit (CTC), Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC), and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 


Education Credits 

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA2025202620252026
Current Law2025202620252026

 


Sec199A Deduction for Qualified Business Income

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Pre-OBBBA20252025
Current Law2025202620252026

 

$6,000 Deduction for Seniors

 By Expanded Cash Income LevelBy Expanded Cash Income Percentile
Current Law20262026



 

 

For previous baseline tables see: Baseline Estimates (2023).