Baseline Estimates

The Tax Policy Center regularly produces tables showing the distribution of income and federal taxes, effective and marginal tax rates, and other measures of federal taxes. Other tables show estimates of individual tax expenditures, the distribution of capital gains and business income, and aspects of the alternative minimum tax. These estimates are the first TPC has produced since the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in late 2017, which lowered taxes for most taxpayers and made other changes to the tax code.

Once most TCJA individual income tax provisions expire at the end of 2025, effective federal tax rates are projected to rise from 19.0 percent to 20.3 percent. The figure below shows most of the increase will be due to a hike in the effective individual income tax rate from 9.4 percent to 10.8 percent. Upper income households who benefited the most from the tax cuts experience the largest changes when they are reversed.

The tables below show TPC’s most recent estimates as of February 2020. This page will be updated to include additional baseline tables as they are published.

Follow the links below to view TPC tables covering those and other tax topics.

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes (February 2020)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2011-2029
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2011-2029
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029

Baseline Distribution of Tax Units by Tax Bracket (February 2020)

Baseline Average Effective Tax Rates (February 2020)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029

Baseline Share of Federal Taxes (February 2020)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029

Baseline Effective Marginal Tax Rates (February 2020)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029

Distribution of Federal Payroll and Income Taxes (March 2020)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2026 2029

 

Tax Units with Zero or Negative Income Tax (March 2020)

Distribution of Tax Units that Pay No Individual Income Tax (March 2020)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2019 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2019 2026

 

Estate Tax Returns and Liability (September 2018)

Distribution of Estate Tax Returns, Gross Estate, and Net Estate Tax (September 2018)

By Size of Gross Estate
2017 2018 2025 2026

Baseline Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Tables (March 2020)

Aggregate AMT Projections

 

Aggregate AMT Projections and Recent History

 

Characteristics of AMT Payers

Individual Income Tax Expenditures (October 2018)

Partial Exclusion of Social Security Benefits

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Exclusion of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for State and Local Income and Sales Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for State and Local Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Property Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Charitable Contributions

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Preferential Rate on Capital Gains and Dividends

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Preferential Rates and NIIT on Capital Gains and Dividends

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Child Tax Credit (CTC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

CTC, CDCTC, and EITC

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Education Credits and Deduction for Student Loan Interest

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Sec199A Deduction for Qualified Business Income

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2018

 

Last updatedApril 6, 2020