Baseline Estimates

The Tax Policy Center regularly produces tables showing the distribution of income and federal taxes, effective and marginal tax rates, and other measures of federal taxes. Other tables show estimates of individual tax expenditures, the share of taxpayers who pay no income or payroll tax, the distribution of capital gains and business income, and aspects of the alternative minimum tax. 

Once most TCJA individual income tax provisions expire at the end of 2025, effective federal tax rates are projected to rise from 19.4 percent to 20.4 percent. The figure below shows that the upper income households who benefited the most from the tax cuts generally experience the largest changes when they are reversed.

 

Tables dated August 2021 or later are based on an economic forecast that includes the effects of the global pandemic and incorporate legislation enacted through that month. Earlier tables are based on a forecast that does not include the effects of the pandemic and do not incorporate legislation signed into law after March 17, 2020.

Follow the links below to view TPC tables covering those and other tax topics.

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes (August 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2011-2031
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2011-2031
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031

Baseline Distribution of Tax Units by Tax Bracket (August 2021)

Baseline Average Effective Tax Rates (August 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031

Baseline Share of Federal Taxes (August 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031

Baseline Effective Marginal Tax Rates (August 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031

Distribution of Federal Payroll and Income Taxes (August 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2029
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2029

 

Distribution of Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends (September 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2021
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2021

Distribution of Individual Income Tax on Long-Term Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends (September 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2031

 

Tax Units with Zero or Negative Income Tax (August 2021)

Distribution of Tax Units that Pay No Individual Income Tax (August 2021)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2021 2022 2026
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2021 2022 2026

 

Estate Tax Returns and Liability (December 2020)

Distribution of Estate Tax Returns, Gross Estate, and Net Estate Tax (September 2018)

By Size of Gross Estate
2017 2018 2025 2026

Baseline Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Tables (September 2021)

Aggregate AMT Projections

 

Aggregate AMT Projections and Recent History

 

Characteristics of AMT Payers

Distribution of Business Taxes and Sources of Flow-Through Business Income (September 2021)

 

Individual Income Tax Expenditures (October 2018)

Partial Exclusion of Social Security Benefits

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Exclusion of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for State and Local Income and Sales Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for State and Local Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Property Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Deduction for Charitable Contributions

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Preferential Rate on Capital Gains and Dividends (April 2020)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2019
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2019

 

Preferential Rates and NIIT on Capital Gains and Dividends

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Child Tax Credit (CTC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

CTC, CDCTC, and EITC

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Education Credits and Deduction for Student Loan Interest

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2017 2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2017 2018

 

Sec199A Deduction for Qualified Business Income

By Expanded Cash Income Level
2018
By Expanded Cash Income Percentile
2018

 

Last updatedSeptember 7, 2021