The Tax Policy Center regularly produces tables showing the distribution of income and federal taxes, effective and marginal tax rates, and other measures of federal taxes. Other tables show estimates of individual tax expenditures, the distribution of capital gains and business income, and aspects of the alternative minimum tax. These estimates are the first TPC has produced since the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in late 2017, which lowered taxes for most taxpayers and made other changes to the tax code.
Once most TCJA individual income tax provisions expire at the end of 2025, effective federal tax rates are projected to rise from 19.0 percent to 20.3 percent. The figure below shows most of the increase will be due to a hike in the effective individual income tax rate from 9.4 percent to 10.8 percent. Upper income households who benefited the most from the tax cuts experience the largest changes when they are reversed.
The tables below show TPC’s most recent estimates as of February 2020. This page will be updated to include additional baseline tables as they are published.
Follow the links below to view TPC tables covering those and other tax topics.
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes (February 2020)
Baseline Distribution of Tax Units by Tax Bracket (February 2020)
Baseline Average Effective Tax Rates (February 2020)
Baseline Share of Federal Taxes (February 2020)
Baseline Effective Marginal Tax Rates (February 2020)
Distribution of Federal Payroll and Income Taxes (March 2020)
Distribution of Tax Units that Pay No Individual Income Tax (March 2020)
Estate Tax Returns and Liability (September 2018)
Distribution of Estate Tax Returns, Gross Estate, and Net Estate Tax (September 2018)
Baseline Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Tables (March 2020)
Aggregate AMT Projections
Aggregate AMT Projections and Recent History
Characteristics of AMT Payers
Individual Income Tax Expenditures (October 2018)
Partial Exclusion of Social Security Benefits
Exclusion of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits
Deduction for State and Local Income and Sales Taxes
Deduction for State and Local Taxes
Deduction for Property Taxes
Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest
Deduction for Home Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes
Deduction for Charitable Contributions
Preferential Rate on Capital Gains and Dividends
Preferential Rates and NIIT on Capital Gains and Dividends
Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)
Child Tax Credit (CTC)
Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC)
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
CTC, CDCTC, and EITC
Education Credits and Deduction for Student Loan Interest
Sec199A Deduction for Qualified Business Income
| By Expanded Cash Income Level | |
| 2018 | |
| By Expanded Cash Income Percentile | |
| 2018 | |
