Last night, at one of those ubiquitous Washington cocktail receptions, I ran into an old friend who, for more than two decades, has been a policy analyst at a federal agency. Her hair-raising story, familiar to many inside the Beltway, is worth retelling as a new president prepares to take office. My friend runs a modest research shop within the bowels of a huge agency. Her job, to oversimplify a bit, is to take a hard look at billions of dollars of federal programs to determine what works and what doesn't.