Economic effects of tax policy

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Research report
Federal Budget and Economy

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: A Missed Opportunity to Establish a Sustainable Tax Code

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 leaves many promises of tax reform unfulfilled. In this paper, we examine the plan’s prospects to boost future growth, and discuss fundamental reforms that would boost the stock of capital and generate sustained, long-term growth. After making the case that the...

May 24, 2018
Benjamin H. Harris, Adam Looney
Testimony
Individual Taxes

Reflections on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Mark Mazur, Director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, testified before the Joint Economic Committee during a hearing entitled “Unleashing America’s Economic Potential.” In his testimony, Mazur presented a review of the principles of desirable tax policy, clear and less clear findings...

April 11, 2018
Mark J. Mazur
Research report
Individual Taxes

The Tax Reform Tradeoff: Eliminating Tax Expenditures, Reducing Rates Final Report

This exercise is a structured analysis to understand the implications that repealing tax expenditures would have for the overall federal tax system. The baseline tax law for the calculations in this exercise is the law in effect before enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (essentially the Tax...

February 22, 2018
TPC Staff
Journal Article
Federal Budget and Economy

Public Ignorance or Elitist Jargon?: Reconsidering Americans’ Overestimates of Government Waste and Foreign Aid

Widespread and profound public misinformation about government presents a serious challenge for democratic accountability. This paper demonstrates that two of the most common examples of public misperception may be systematically overestimated; public misperceptions of government spending are in...

January 23, 2018
Vanessa Williamson
Research report
Federal Budget and Economy

Dynamic Analysis of the House GOP Tax Plan: An Update

This paper presents estimates of the macroeconomic effects, and resulting dynamic impact on revenues, of the House GOP tax plan announced in June 2016. The estimates were produced in two ways. One set of estimates uses a combination of TPC’s Keynesian model (to project short-run effects on...

June 30, 2017
Benjamin R. Page
Research report
Federal Budget and Economy

An Analysis of the House GOP Tax Plan

This research report was originally published by the Columbia Journal of Tax Law. The publication is updated version of, "An Analysis of the...

April 5, 2017
Leonard E. Burman, James R. Nunns, Benjamin R. Page, Jeffrey Rohaly, Joseph Rosenberg
Research report
Federal Budget and Economy

Dynamic Analysis of Tax Plans: An Update

This paper gives an overview of the TPC’s methodology for dynamic analysis of tax proposals. Following the practice of official government estimators, we use a Keynesian model to estimate the short-term effects of policy changes on output relative to its full-employment level. That model assumes...

April 5, 2017
Benjamin R. Page, Kent Smetters
Research report
Federal Budget and Economy

The Fiscal Outlook at the Beginning of the Trump Administration

New information from the Congressional Budget Office allows an update of the fiscal outlook. While deficits are manageable in the short run, the debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms. Under “current policy,” we project the ratio will rise to 96 percent by 2027 and 154...

January 29, 2017
Alan J. Auerbach, William G. Gale
Brief
Federal Budget and Economy

Interest Rates and the Federal Budget Outlook

This essay is the tenth in a twelve-essay colloquium on the effect of low interest rates on the economy. To read other essays in the series, click here. The original version of this paper was...

December 11, 2016
Alan J. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Aaron Krupkin
Research report
Federal Budget and Economy

11 Essential Questions for Designing a Policy to Price Carbon

Economists widely advocate establishing a price on carbon as a central means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the risks of global climatic disruption and ocean acidification. To be sure, a price on carbon is necessarily one part of a broader climate policy portfolio that includes...

July 8, 2016
Adele C. Morris