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Federal Budget and Economy: Brief

Here Comes the Next Fiscal Crisis

Los Angeles Times op-ed, July 8, 2009. In the immediate future, policymakers will face a delicate balancing act between encouraging economic recovery and establishing fiscal sustainability. Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale examine the economic challenges facing the U.S.
July 10, 2009Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale
Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

Another stimulus? Say it Ain’t So.

Congressional Democrats, having apparently lost patience with the first Obama stimulus, are beating the drum for yet another round of government money to pump up the still-lagging economy. They need to take a deep breath. Lori Montgomery wrote a nice piece in yesterday’s Washington Post explaining why. Using some data from Mark Zandi at Economy.com, Lori reports that barely $100 billion of last winter’s nearly $800 billion stimulus has made its way into the economy. Until the rest is spent, why would we want to run up the debt by hundreds of billions more?
July 9, 2009Howard Gleckman
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Who Pays No Income Tax?

Nearly half of all families and individuals will pay no income tax this year. But who are they? It turns out that whether a taxpayer is single or married, is elderly, or has children makes a big difference. Nearly 47 percent of single tax units will owe no tax, compared with about 40 percent of joint filers and over 70 percent of household heads. About 55 percent of the elderly and tax units with children will pay no tax. Two factors primarily explain the variation: differences in income and available tax preferences.
July 8, 2009Roberton C. Williams
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

On-line Sales Tax Hardball

A long-simmering dispute over whether online retailers must collect sales taxes is boiling over again. Two Web retailing giants, Amazon.com and Overstock.com, are severing relationships with local businesses in states that are trying to force them to collect the levy, angering cash-strapped states and sending bloggers into an on-line frenzy. There are three things you should know about this squabble. 1. It has nothing whatever to do with ‘taxing the Internet.” 2. You owe the tax anyway. Amazon would make the paperwork easier for its customers by collecting the money at the time of sale, but whether it does so or not, you still have to pay. Not that many of us do, but that is another story. 3. According to one estimate, by 2012 state and local governments will be losing as much as $12 billion annually from uncollected taxes on online sales. There is real money at stake here.
July 7, 2009Howard Gleckman
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Pruning the Income Tax Rolls

Last year’s election campaign sparked a major debate over refundable tax credits. Barack Obama insisted they were the only way to make tax benefits available to low-income households. (If you have no tax liability, you get a cash payment.) Critics countered loudly: How can you cut taxes for people who don’t pay them? And there are a lot of non-taxpayers—under 2008 law, the Tax Policy Center estimated 38 percent of all tax units would pay no income tax in 2009.
July 6, 2009Roberton C. Williams
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Paying for Health Reform: Tax the Fella Behind the Tree

The American public is deeply divided over whether to raise taxes to pay for health reform. A fascinating Kaiser Family Foundation review of recent survey data finds that in five polls taken over the past four months, about half of those questioned said they’d be willing to pay higher taxes as the price of reform. However, the amount of tax they are willing to pay appears to be low, they’d much prefer someone else pay, and they don’t like the idea of taxing employer-sponsored insurance one bit. Most striking, a dispiriting 60 percent think the system can be fixed without spending any more money at all—an outcome that no health economist I know thinks is remotely possible.
July 2, 2009Howard Gleckman
Federal Budget and Economy: Research report

Who Pays No Income Tax?

Nearly half of all tax units will pay no income tax in 2009. The fraction of non-taxpayers differs widely, depending on income, tax filing status, and whether the unit is elderly or contains children.
July 2, 2009Roberton C. Williams
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Will Obama Regret the House’s Cap and Trade Give-Away?

During the presidential campaign, Barack Obama and John McCain profoundly disagreed on many issues, among them climate change legislation and the tax treatment of health care. Now, President Obama seems to be bowing to one of McCain’s poor ideas while resisting one of his better proposals. It is funny how the politics of these issues is playing out. Many economists agree that McCain had the right idea on health care—the Arizona senator proposed replacing the current exclusion for employer-sponsored insurance with a generous tax credit. Yet, Obama continues to resist (though with increasingly less vigor) any change in the tax treatment of insurance.
June 30, 2009Howard Gleckman
: Current Law

T09-0342 - Baseline Distribution of Cash Income and Federal Taxes Under Current Law, by Cash Income Level, 2004-2020

Baseline distribution table, by cash income level, of cash income and federal taxes under current law for version 0509-2 of the tax model.
June 30, 2009
: Current Law

T09-0343 - Baseline Distribution of Cash Income and Federal Taxes Under Current Law, by Cash Income Percentile, 2004-2020

Baseline distribution tables, by cash income percentile, of cash income and federal taxes under current law for version 0509-2 of the tax model.
June 30, 2009
: Current Law

T09-0344 - Baseline Distribution of Cash Income and Federal Taxes Under Current Law by Filing Status and Cash Income Level, 2009

Baseline distribution tables, by cash income level, broken down by filing status, elderly and tax units with children for 2009.
June 30, 2009
: Current Law

T09-0345 - Baseline Distribution of Cash Income and Federal Taxes Under Current Law, by Filing Status and Cash Income Level, 2012

Baseline distribution tables, by cash income level, broken down by filing status, elderly and tax units with children for 2012.
June 30, 2009
Individual Taxes: Current Law

T09-0333 - Tax Units With Zero or Negative Tax Liability, 2009-2019

Tax units with zero or negative tax liability under current law, the Administration's baseline and the Administration's budget proposal for 2009-2019.
June 30, 2009
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Obama off the leader board

There’s an interesting exchange on the climate change bill going on over at Capital Gains and Games. Budget wonk Stan Collander was impressed that “…the White House once again has demonstrated an excellent ability to get Congress to go along with the things it wants.” Dartmouth economist and former Bush CEA member Andrew Samwick, however, argues that this is backwards. He thinks the legislative branch should take the lead on developing legislation and the executive branch should take a subordinate role.
June 29, 2009Leonard E. Burman
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Raising the Medical Deduction Floor: Is It Worth the Trouble?

What if we helped pay for health reform by raising the floor on deductible medical expenses from 7.5 percent of adjusted gross income to 10 percent? That, at least, is an idea leaked to The Wall Street Journal earlier this week by the Senate Finance Committee The move, which TPC figures would raise about $23 billon over 10 years--about 2 percent of the likely cost of health reform--would lift the floor that was set back in 1986. To get a sense of what it would mean, I asked TPC’s Jeff Rohaly and Rachel Johnson to run some quick numbers.
June 25, 2009Howard Gleckman
State and Local Issues: Research report

An Update on the Economic Crisis and the Fiscal Crisis: 2009 and Beyond

This paper reviews recent economic events and their impact on U.S. fiscal performance and prospects. We highlight the historic nature of the 2009 budget outcomes, the unsustainability of plausible ten-year budget projections, and the increasingly dire long-term fiscal problem. These conditions
June 25, 2009Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale
Federal Budget and Economy: 2009

T09-0339 - Medical Expense Deduction Floor Raised to 10 Percent of AGI Impact on Individual Income Tax Revenue ($ billions), 2010-19

Ten year revenue impact due to increasing the medical deduction floor to 10% of AGI - against current law and Administration's baseline.
June 23, 2009
Individual Taxes: 2009

T09-0340 - Medical Expense Deduction Floor Raised to 10 Percent of AGI Baseline: Current Law Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level, 2009

2009 Distribution tables of federal tax change due to increasing the medical deduction floor to 10% of AGI.
June 23, 2009
Individual Taxes: 2009

T09-0341 - Medical Expense Deduction Floor Raised to 10 Percent of AGI Baseline: Current Law Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Percentile, 2009

2009 Distribution tables of federal tax change due to increasing the medical deduction floor to 10% of AGI.
June 23, 2009
Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

Gale and Auerbach’s “Problematic” Budget Outlook

Bill Gale and Alan Auerbach are nice guys, but they sure know how to ruin a beautiful summer day. I’ve spent the morning reading through their latest long-term budget forecast. It’s not even Noon and I think I need a drink. Gale, who is TPC’s co-director, and Auerbach, who heads the Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance at Berkeley, have done this exercise for the past few years--each iteration more depressing than the last. The story this year: Long after the economy recovers and returns to full employment, long after the TARP and the auto bailouts are history, the U.S. will face massive and unsustainable deficits. Don’t let anyone tell you this is a temporary problem that will fade with the recession. It isn’t and it won’t.
June 23, 2009Howard Gleckman
Individual Taxes: Research report

Do We Need a Value-Added Tax to Solve Our Long-Run Budget Problems?

The U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path. That is because Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which together constituted almost one half of noninterest spending before the recent stimulus plan, are all growing faster than tax revenues. If these programs are not reformed, tax burdens raised
June 23, 2009Rudolph G. Penner
Individual Taxes: Current Law

T09-0338 - Percentage of Taxpayers Whose Social Security Taxes Exceed Their Income Taxes by Cash Income Class, 2009

Percentage tax payers across cash income percentiles whose Social Security taxes exceed their individual income taxes.
June 21, 2009
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Taxing Junk Food

One proposal to help finance health reform would tax fast food, salty snacks, and/or sugary drinks like soda. While critics see government meddling in citizens’ private lives, supporters of a “junk food” tax say such a levy could help finance expanded insurance coverage as well as lower health care costs by inducing people to switch to healthier diets. Taxpayers pay much of the expense of obesity-related disease through Medicare and Medicaid.
June 19, 2009Jacob Goldin
Individual Taxes

T09-0334 - Distribution of Tax Units with Zero or Negative Individual Income Tax Liability by Cash Income Level, Current Law, 2009

2009 distribution, by cash income level, of tax units with zero or negative individual income tax liability.
June 18, 2009
Individual Taxes

T09-0335 - Distribution of Tax Units with Zero or Negative Individual Income Tax Liability by Cash Income Level, Current Law, 2012

2012 distribution, by cash income level, of tax units with zero or negative individual income tax liability.
June 18, 2009

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