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State and Local Issues: Research report

Governing with Tight Budgets

Long Term Trends in State Finances
Changing demographics, technology, and inflation are creating an increasingly difficult environment for state budgets. An aging population puts more pressure on spending programs while reducing tax revenues from some sources. State sales tax revenue systems have not kept up as technology has
September 11, 2015Norton FrancisFrank Sammartino
State and Local Issues: Brief

The Growth Mirage: State Tax Cuts Do Not Automatically Lead to Economic Growth

Cuts in top state income taxes are intended to raise economic growth, but could instead force punishing spending cuts, as revenues fall and states confront borrowing constraints. Previous work shows no clear impact of state taxes on growth. In new research, we build on a widely cited study that
September 11, 2015William G. GaleAaron KrupkinKim S. Rueben
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms: TaxVox

The Cost of the Bush Tax Cuts, and What It Might Mean

While GOP presidential hopeful Jeb Bush has been reluctant to describe his tax plan as a tax cut, economists close to him have not. And newly-released cost estimates of his tax reform plan -- and their consequences--are worth considering. The very short version: His plan would add at least a
September 10, 2015Howard Gleckman
: Daily Deduction

A Plan Without a Price Tag

GOP candidate Jeb Bush shares many, but not all, tax plan specifics. Bush laid out a detailed plan to lower the top individual tax rate to 28 percent, cut rates on corporate income and capital gains to 20 percent, and repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax and the estate tax, and remove millions of low
September 10, 2015Renu Zaretsky
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms: TaxVox

Bush’s tax plan: Something old, something new

Jeb Bush has put forth a tax plan that is ambitious in design, comprehensive in scope, and fairly detailed for this stage of the campaign. In contrast to some of the wilder ideas that permeate the tax debate among Republicans, Bush’s proposal offers many interesting structural changes worthy of
September 9, 2015William G. Gale
Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

Jeb Bush’s Tax Plan: High Marks for Transparency But Key Questions Remain

At first glance, GOP presidential hopeful Jeb Bush’s tax reform plan is a standard lower-the-rates, broaden-the-base overhaul of the revenue code. But a closer look shows a something-for-everyone stew filled with interesting ingredients—most basic GOP fare but seasoned with a few surprising ideas.
September 9, 2015Howard Gleckman
: Daily Deduction

If at First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try, Again.

Alabama’s budget: Is the third time the charm? The state’s legislature began its second special session of the year last night, and will try for the third time to pass a budget. Alabama’s general fund faces a $200 million shortfall next year and GOP Governor Robert Bentley has proposed $260 million
September 9, 2015Renu Zaretsky
Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

Five Tax Stories To Watch in What Will Be a Wild Fall in Congress and on the Campaign Trail

Congress is back. Fiscal deadlines loom. Presidential candidates have tax plans to propose. It isn’t clear how much lawmakers will accomplish in the next four months, but it will be a busy and interesting fall. Here are five stories to watch: International Tax Reform : House Republicans insist they
September 8, 2015Howard Gleckman
: Daily Deduction

Deals, Dreams, and Data

Amazon still gets a prime deal in Illinois. Despite budget woes and GOP Governor Bruce Rauner’s concerns, Illinois has kept its tax break commitment to Amazon. The state told the firm in May that it will receive about $975,000 annually for the next ten years. In exchange, Amazon will build a
September 8, 2015Renu Zaretsky
Individual Taxes: Brief

The Financial Consequences of Marriage for Cohabiting Couples with Children

Tax and transfer programs can create significant bonuses and penalties for low- and moderate-income cohabiters with children. We find that federal tax laws can create marriage penalties that reach almost 10 percent of earnings for our hypothetical couples earning $40,000 or $50,000 a year. In
September 8, 2015Elaine Maag
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Why Individual Tax Revenues Will Grow Even If Congress Doesn’t Raise Taxes

The other day, I wrote about new Congressional Budget Office estimates that individual income tax revenues are likely to grow significantly over the next decade. A new paper by my Tax Policy Center colleagues Jim Nunns and Jeff Rohaly shows the importance of this trend through the rest of the
September 3, 2015Howard Gleckman
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

The Case of the Unreturned Call for Tax Code Simplicity

So far, at least 22 people are running for president. Only three have released detailed tax plans, but nearly all call for more simplicity—perhaps so much that we could file our returns on a postcard. In 2012, National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson called for simplicity, too: “A simpler, more
September 2, 2015Renu Zaretsky
Federal Budget and Economy: Research report

The Distributional Burden of Federal Excise Taxes

The federal tax system imposes a number of excise taxes on goods and services such as gasoline, alcohol, tobacco, air travel, and health care. In fiscal year 2014, the federal government raised $93.4 billion or 0.5 percent of GDP from excise taxes, accounting for about 3 percent of total federal
September 2, 2015Joseph Rosenberg
Business Taxes: TaxVox

Could a Carbon Tax Prevent The Catastrophic Consequences of Climate Change That Obama Fears?

In recent days, President Obama has painted the risks of climate change in apocalyptic terms. Speaking in Anchorage, AK on Monday, Obama warned that without quick action to slow or reverse global warming, "entire nations will find themselves under severe, severe problems: More drought. More floods
September 1, 2015Howard Gleckman
Individual Taxes: Brief

Why Individual Income Tax Revenues Grow Faster Than GDP

Using the latest long-term budget projections from the Congressional Budget Office, we project that individual income tax revenues under current law will increase as a share of GDP from a little over 9.5 percent in 2025 to a little less than 13.3 percent in 2090, an increase of over 3.7 percentage
September 1, 2015James R. NunnsJeffrey Rohaly
: Daily Deduction

Thirty Days Hath September: Stay tuned for tax plans to remember?

Congress is in recess. The Daily Deduction will publish Mondays until Congress returns in mid-September. September could be a big month for candidate tax plans. GOP contender Donald Trump plans to release his comprehensive plan in September. He vows to raise taxes on hedge fund managers but provide
August 31, 2015Renu Zaretsky
Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

CBO Sees a Big Increase in Individual Income Tax Revenues Over the Next Decade

In its semi-annual fiscal update released this week, the Congressional Budget Office projects that federal revenues will remain flat over the next decade, while spending—mostly for health care and Social Security—will rise. The result: Budget deficits, which have been declining in recent years as
August 27, 2015Howard Gleckman
Business Taxes: TaxVox

Should College Endowments Be Taxed?

Last week, the often-provocative Victor Fleischer rocked the higher education world with a New York Times op-ed that accused universities of hoarding their often-enormous endowments instead of spending the funds on student aid. Vic, a tax law professor at the University of San Diego, suggested that
August 25, 2015Howard Gleckman
: Daily Deduction

Plans, Problems, and Production

Congress is in recess. The Daily Deduction will publish Mondays until Congress returns in mid-September. In Detroit, Marco Rubio shared a little ditty about “David” and “Danielle.” The GOP presidential candidate touted his tax plan’s effect on a hypothetical auto service shop owner and a single
August 24, 2015Renu Zaretsky
State and Local Issues: Research report

Prepping for the New Session: End-of-Summer Reading for State Budget Analysts

Every year, the Urban Institute produces hundreds of reports, briefings, webcasts, and blog posts. In this publication, Urban’s State and Local Finance Initiative has brought together the latest evidence-based research, data, and solutions with direct relevance for analysts charged with crafting
August 20, 2015Norton FrancisTracy GordonMegan Randall
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Scott Walker’s Replacement for the ACA Would Leave Many Uninsured

GOP presidential hopeful Scott Walker’s plan to replace the Affordable Care Act is built on a controversial framework of tax subsidies that Walker estimates would cost about $1 trillion over 10 years. The plan is already drawing heat from fellow GOP candidate Bobby Jindal, who called it “a new
August 20, 2015Howard Gleckman
State and Local Issues: TaxVox

New Rules Will Require States to Be More Transparent About Tax Subsidies

Congrats to the Government Accounting Standards Board for pushing state and local governments to be more transparent about their tax subsidies. Last week, the agency approved new disclosure requirements that will require states and localities to publicly disclose how much of a given tax is being
August 18, 2015Howard Gleckman
: Daily Deduction

Tax plans and presidential candidates: The future [may or may not be] now.

Congress is in recess. The Daily Deduction will publish Mondays until Congress returns in mid-September. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker cut taxes in his state, so as President… Well, he hasn’t released specific federal tax proposals. But in Wisconsin, he’s cut taxes by $2 billion in the past two
August 17, 2015Renu Zaretsky
Business Taxes: TaxVox

Why Did Scott Walker Commit $400 Million for a Pro Basketball Arena?

Yesterday, Wisconsin Governor—and GOP presidential hopeful--Scott Walker committed more than $400 million in taxpayer money to help build a new basketball arena for a group of wealthy investors. Walker, like many pols before him, fell for the promise of huge economic returns from a state-of-the art
August 13, 2015Howard Gleckman
Individual Taxes: TaxVox

Clinton Would Tinker With, Not Rewrite, the Tax Code

While many Republican presidential candidates are promoting their versions of broad-based tax reform, Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton so far seems disinterested in fundamentally restructuring the code. Instead, she’d retain the framework of the current tax law, while tweaking the code to
August 11, 2015Howard Gleckman

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