States use different methods to estimate how much revenue they will have available to spend in future years. This fact sheet describes different approaches to revenue forecasting and presents recommendations on how to improve forecasting accuracy and transparency.
Budget stabilization funds (BSFs), also known as rainy day funds, allow states to set aside surplus revenue for times of unexpected revenue shortfall or budget deficit. This fact sheet describes how BSF rules vary across states and reviews evidence on how they affect savings and volatility.
Tax and expenditure limits (TELs) are self-imposed restrictions that state governments create to restrict the amount they can tax or spend. This fact sheet describes how TELs vary across states and discusses evidence on whether TELs achieve their objective of restraining government growth.
Balanced budget requirements (BBRs) prohibit states from spending more than they collect in revenue. This fact sheet describes how BBRs vary in stringency and design and reviews evidence on whether stricter antideficit provisions produce “tighter” state fiscal outcomes, such as reduced spending...
States adopt a variety of budget practices to help define spending priorities and influence fiscal outcomes. However, not all budget practices achieve the desired fiscal objectives, and some practices may compromise states’ long-term fiscal sustainability. This report discusses evidence from the...
In our research, we examine two alcohol excise tax increases enacted by Illinois in 1999 and in 2009. Using the synthetic control method, we find no evidence that either tax increase reduces fatal alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes for the whole of Illinois, although we do find evidence of a...
Current discussions about federal tax reform include a number of proposals that could impact the states. These items may broaden the tax base and increase state revenue, or put pressure on states to cut taxes and reduce revenue, or even create administrative challenges for states. In this...
This study examines the effect of alcohol excise taxes on alcohol- related fatal traffic crashes. In 2015, 29.3 percent of the 35,092 traffic fatalities in the United States involved someone driving under the influence of alcohol. Raising federal or state excise taxes on alcoholic beverages...
Tracy Gordon, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, spoke before the New Democrat Coalition 21st Century Task Force on October 4, 2017. She shared four things that Congress may want to keep in mind when considering changes to infrastructure policy....
To help analysts craft next year’s state budgets, and to help reporters explain them and the public understand them, we compiled the Urban Institute’s and the Tax Policy Center’s best state-focused research in one place. The research in this compendium will help analysts better evaluate agency...
Revenue Forecasting Practices
States use different methods to estimate how much revenue they will have available to spend in future years. This fact sheet describes different approaches to revenue forecasting and presents recommendations on how to improve forecasting accuracy and transparency.
Budget Stabilization Funds
Budget stabilization funds (BSFs), also known as rainy day funds, allow states to set aside surplus revenue for times of unexpected revenue shortfall or budget deficit. This fact sheet describes how BSF rules vary across states and reviews evidence on how they affect savings and volatility.
Tax and Expenditure Limits
Tax and expenditure limits (TELs) are self-imposed restrictions that state governments create to restrict the amount they can tax or spend. This fact sheet describes how TELs vary across states and discusses evidence on whether TELs achieve their objective of restraining government growth.
Balanced Budget Requirements
Balanced budget requirements (BBRs) prohibit states from spending more than they collect in revenue. This fact sheet describes how BBRs vary in stringency and design and reviews evidence on whether stricter antideficit provisions produce “tighter” state fiscal outcomes, such as reduced spending...
Sustainable Budgeting in the States: Evidence on State Budget Institutions and Practices
States adopt a variety of budget practices to help define spending priorities and influence fiscal outcomes. However, not all budget practices achieve the desired fiscal objectives, and some practices may compromise states’ long-term fiscal sustainability. This report discusses evidence from the...
State Alcohol Excise Taxes May Have Little Effect on Drunk Driving Fatalities
In our research, we examine two alcohol excise tax increases enacted by Illinois in 1999 and in 2009. Using the synthetic control method, we find no evidence that either tax increase reduces fatal alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes for the whole of Illinois, although we do find evidence of a...
How Federal Tax Changes Would Affect the States
Current discussions about federal tax reform include a number of proposals that could impact the states. These items may broaden the tax base and increase state revenue, or put pressure on states to cut taxes and reduce revenue, or even create administrative challenges for states. In this...
Do Alcohol Excise Taxes Reduce Motor Vehicle Fatalities? Evidence from Two Illinois Tax Increases
This study examines the effect of alcohol excise taxes on alcohol- related fatal traffic crashes. In 2015, 29.3 percent of the 35,092 traffic fatalities in the United States involved someone driving under the influence of alcohol. Raising federal or state excise taxes on alcoholic beverages...
Four Considerations for Infrastructure Policy
Tracy Gordon, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, spoke before the New Democrat Coalition 21st Century Task Force on October 4, 2017. She shared four things that Congress may want to keep in mind when considering changes to infrastructure policy....
Prepping for the 2018 Legislative Session
To help analysts craft next year’s state budgets, and to help reporters explain them and the public understand them, we compiled the Urban Institute’s and the Tax Policy Center’s best state-focused research in one place. The research in this compendium will help analysts better evaluate agency...