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Tax Policy Center

Research & Commentary

Brief
State and Local Issues

State Revenue Forecasts Before COVID-19 and Directions Forward

The global pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak will dramatically affect state tax revenues over the next months and possibly years. This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic, as documented in governors’ proposed...

April 2, 2020
Lucy Dadayan
Research report
State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2019 Quarter 3

State and local government tax revenues showed normal growth in the third quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018, much weaker growth in the first quarter of 2019, and robust growth in the second quarter of 2019. Most of the volatility in the prior quarters...

February 24, 2020
Lucy Dadayan
Brief
State and Local Issues

State Income Tax Expenditures

In this brief, we consider both personal and business income tax expenditures at the state level. We use California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and the District of Columbia as examples. We separate tax expenditures into those that occur because of conformity with federal tax provisions and those...

January 17, 2020
Aravind BoddupalliFrank SammartinoEric Toder
Testimony
State and Local Issues

Strengthening the Federal-State-Local Partnership in Recession and Recovery

Tracy Gordon, senior fellow, testified before the US House of Representatives Committee on the Budget for a hearing on “Why Federal Investments Matter: Stability from Congress to State Capitals.” In her testimony she notes that while states and localities are key economic players and service...

January 15, 2020
Tracy Gordon
Research report
State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2019 Quarter 2

State government tax revenues fluctuated wildly throughout state fiscal year 2019, which ended on June 30th in 46 states. The fluctuations were largely related to income tax receipts and caused by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Overall, state tax revenues showed robust growth in the second...

November 26, 2019
Lucy Dadayan
Research report
State and Local Issues

Are States Betting on Sin? The Murky Future of State Taxation

“Sin taxes” are often viewed as budget saviors, though they play a rather small role in state budgets. Although states raise revenue from sin taxes, policymakers should be mindful of these taxes’ limitations. Absent policy changes (such as increased tax rates), long-term growth for sin tax...

October 8, 2019
Lucy Dadayan
Brief
Individual Taxes

An Opportunity Zone Guide for Governors and a Case Study of South Carolina

Created by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, the federal government’s latest economic development incentive, Opportunity Zones, is currently in the beginning stages of implementation. While it has the potential to stimulate significant cash flow across the country, its success partially depends...

September 25, 2019
Brett TheodosCody EvansBrady Meixell
Research report
State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2019 Quarter 1

State government tax revenues rebounded in the first quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018. However, year-over-year growth was substantially weaker in the first quarter of 2019 than in the final quarter of 2017 and the first three quarters of 2018. Most of the recent...

September 24, 2019
Lucy Dadayan
Brief
Federal Budget and Economy

Why Local Governments Should Prepare for the Fiscal Effects of a Dwindling Coal Industry

This policy brief summarizes the implications of a carbon-constrained future on coal-dependent local governments in the United States. It considers the outlook for US coal production over the next decade under such conditions and explores how county finances could be affected. It also considers...

August 20, 2019
Adele C. MorrisNoah KaufmanSiddhi Doshi
Journal Article
Business Taxes

The Risk of Fiscal Collapse in Coal-Reliant Communities

If the United States undertakes actions to address the risks of climate change, the use of coal in the power sector will decline rapidly. Twenty-six US counties are classified as “coal-mining dependent,” meaning the coal industry is a major employer. In these areas, the industry is also an...

August 20, 2019
Adele C. MorrisNoah KaufmanSiddhi Doshi

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