We provide estimates of the federal budget outlook based on new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis. CBO projects a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 percent by fiscal year 2029 under current law, up from 78 percent today. Under a “current policy” scenario similar to CBO’s alternative fiscal...
A robust carbon tax would generate considerable revenue. Some carbon tax advocates have suggested returning those revenues to Americans through direct payments, often called carbon dividends. We examine how to design these dividends considering two, sometimes conflicting, principles. Carbon...
Administrative tax data contain a wealth of information that is potentially valuable for research and analysis. However, the legal and ethical imperative to protect taxpayer privacy has restricted their access to a small number of government analysts and select researchers. We propose to develop...
Recent tax cuts and the relaxation of spending caps on much of discretionary spending have added massively to the federal debt. Neither political party is showing much interest in controlling deficits and unless there are large changes in fiscal policies we are firmly on a road to a fiscal...
This speech was delivered before the Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions in Seoul, South Korea on July 4, 2018.
American places are pulling apart from one another—economically, socially, and politically. Declining regional income convergence, increasing geographic concentration of joblessness, and an increasing awareness of the social costs of long-term joblessness and economic isolation have led many...
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) missed an opportunity to help low-income childless workers, very low-income families with children, and families with young children – all groups where investments could be particularly productive. The child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC)...
In this article, Auerbach, Gale, and Krupkin discuss the federal budget outlook, examining long-term debt and the fiscal gap using recently updated data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security and Medicare boards of trustees.
In this paper, part of the Carbon Tax Research Initiative led by Columbia University’s SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy, we estimate how a carbon tax would affect the distribution of tax burdens across US taxpayers. We consider three carbon tax scenarios that would price carbon at roughly $14...
Increased demand for better use of evidence in policymaking has sparked bipartisan support for better evaluation of federal spending programs. Tax expenditures, spending-like subsidies embedded in the tax code, cost taxpayers roughly as much as domestic discretionary programs, yet receive little...
If Not Now, When? New Estimates of the Federal Budget Outlook
We provide estimates of the federal budget outlook based on new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis. CBO projects a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 percent by fiscal year 2029 under current law, up from 78 percent today. Under a “current policy” scenario similar to CBO’s alternative fiscal...
How to Design Carbon Dividends
A robust carbon tax would generate considerable revenue. Some carbon tax advocates have suggested returning those revenues to Americans through direct payments, often called carbon dividends. We examine how to design these dividends considering two, sometimes conflicting, principles. Carbon...
Safely Expanding Research Access to Administrative Tax Data: Creating a Synthetic Public Use File and a Validation Server
Administrative tax data contain a wealth of information that is potentially valuable for research and analysis. However, the legal and ethical imperative to protect taxpayer privacy has restricted their access to a small number of government analysts and select researchers. We propose to develop...
A U.S. Fiscal Crisis?
Recent tax cuts and the relaxation of spending caps on much of discretionary spending have added massively to the federal debt. Neither political party is showing much interest in controlling deficits and unless there are large changes in fiscal policies we are firmly on a road to a fiscal...
The Role of Experts in Today's Political Climate
This speech was delivered before the Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions in Seoul, South Korea on July 4, 2018.
Harnessing The U.S. Intergovernmental Grant System for Place-Based Assistance In Recession and Recovery
American places are pulling apart from one another—economically, socially, and politically. Declining regional income convergence, increasing geographic concentration of joblessness, and an increasing awareness of the social costs of long-term joblessness and economic isolation have led many...
Who Benefits from Expanding the EITC or CTC?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) missed an opportunity to help low-income childless workers, very low-income families with children, and families with young children – all groups where investments could be particularly productive. The child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC)...
The Federal Budget Outlook: We Are Not Winning
In this article, Auerbach, Gale, and Krupkin discuss the federal budget outlook, examining long-term debt and the fiscal gap using recently updated data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security and Medicare boards of trustees.
Distributional Implications of a Carbon Tax
In this paper, part of the Carbon Tax Research Initiative led by Columbia University’s SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy, we estimate how a carbon tax would affect the distribution of tax burdens across US taxpayers. We consider three carbon tax scenarios that would price carbon at roughly $14...
Evaluating Tax Expenditures
Increased demand for better use of evidence in policymaking has sparked bipartisan support for better evaluation of federal spending programs. Tax expenditures, spending-like subsidies embedded in the tax code, cost taxpayers roughly as much as domestic discretionary programs, yet receive little...