Skip to main content
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Briefing Book
  • Resources
  • About
  • Contact
  • Support
  • Fiscal Facts
Twitter
Facebook
Logo Site
  • Topics
    • Individual Taxes
    • Business Taxes
    • Federal Budget and Economy
    • State and Local Issues
    • Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms
  • TaxVox Blog
  • Research & Commentary
  • Laws & Proposals
  • Model Estimates
  • Statistics
  • Features
Research report

The Budget Outlook

Baseline and Adjusted Projections

William G. Gale, Peter Orszag
September 22, 2003
Download PDFPrint
Share

Primary tasks

  • Overview(active tab)
  • Full Report

Abstract

The CBO's new budget update provides the opportunity to reassess fiscal prospects and reconsider policy options. This paper examines the baseline CBO projections and adjusts the official data in ways that we believe more accurately reflect the current trajectory of tax and spending policies and the government's underlying financial status. Although the CBO baseline projects unified deficits that average 1 percent of GDP and shrink over the next decade, realistic assumptions about current policy imply persistent deficits of in excess of 3 percent of GDP in the unified budget and in excess of 5 percent of GDP exclusive of retirement trust funds. All budget projections deterioriate sharply and permanently after the current decade ends.

Research Area

Federal Budget and Economy
To reuse content from the Tax Policy Center, visit copyright.com, search for the publications, choose from a list of licenses, and complete the transaction.

Meet the Experts

  • William G. Gale
    Codirector
  • Peter Orszag
Research report

New Evidence on The Effect of The TCJA On the Housing Market

Robert McClelland, Livia Mucciolo, Safia Sayed
March 30, 2022
  • Donate Today
  • Topics
  • TaxVox Blog
  • Research & Commentary
  • Laws & Proposals
  • Model Estimates
  • Statistics
  • Privacy Policy
  • Newsletters
Twitter
Facebook
  • © Urban Institute, Brookings Institution, and individual authors, 2022.