In this paper Toder addresses issues related to measurement of the tax gapthe difference between tax liability under the current Federal tax law and taxes paid. He discusses how the tax gap is defined, reviews the main components of the tax gap, and describes how the IRS estimates it, as well as...

In 2009, the federal deficit will be larger as a share of the economy than at any time since the 1940s. After 2009, we project an average deficit of $1 trillion per year for the next 10 years, under optimistic assumptions. The longer-run picture is even bleaker, with a fiscal gap of 7-9 percent...

This paper outlines a plan for a VAT dedicated to paying for a new universal health insurance voucher combined with a vastly simplified and much flatter income tax. Top income tax rates could be cut to 25% or less and most taxpayers would not have to file returns. The health care voucher would...

The U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path. That is because Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which together constituted almost one half of noninterest spending before the recent stimulus plan, are all growing faster than tax revenues. If these programs are not reformed, tax burdens...

This paper reviews recent economic events and their impact on U.S. fiscal performance and prospects. We highlight the historic nature of the 2009 budget outcomes, the unsustainability of plausible ten-year budget projections, and the increasingly dire long-term fiscal problem. These conditions...

Nearly half of all tax units will pay no income tax in 2009. The fraction of non-taxpayers differs widely, depending on income, tax filing status, and whether the unit is elderly or contains children.

The federal earned income tax credit (EITC) was established in 1975 as part of the individual income tax to offset payroll taxes for low-income working families. After several expansions, the refundable tax credit is now the largest federal cash assistance program for low-income families. A...

In a tax system with increasing marginal tax rates, the tax increase from a boost to income is at least equal to the tax reduction from a decline in income and is larger if the change in income crosses a marginal tax bracket. As a result, people with volatile incomes may pay more tax than people...

Health costs now total close to one-fifth of households' personal income. For moderate-income workers whose cash wages are lower then they would be if employers weren't paying for their health insurance, the bite is often bigger. Many elected officials seeking health care reform don't even know...

On June 13, 2003, the IRS requested public comments on a proposed EITC procedure. The goal of this new EITC procedure, known as precertification, is to reduce EITC error rates by individuals who are ineligible. Because a variety of questions have been raised about this procedure, and also...