Research report

As the economy begins to recover from the Great Recession, policymakers must confront the next fiscal challenge: the long-run federal deficit. The first opportunity to do so is the impending expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts: full extension of all of the cuts would increase the deficit by...

August 12, 2010
Adam Looney
Research report

Continuation of current U.S. fiscal policy will lead to an enormous accumulation of debt with potentially disastrous economic consequences. Exacerbated by the recent economic turmoil and fueled by the willingness of creditors to lend at very low interest rates, there is signifi cant risk that...

September 1, 2010
Leonard E. BurmanKatherine LimJeffrey RohalyJoseph Rosenberg
Research report

Eugene Steuerles response Henry Aaron in a point-counterpoint debate about Americas fiscal struggles. This discourse includes agreement and disagreement, yet is honestly presented without the noise and confusion that often surround these issues. Steuerles and Aarons essays and responses to each...

September 8, 2010
C. Eugene Steuerle
Research report

In a point-counterpoint with Henry Aaron, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Eugene Steuerle discusses five pressing fiscal problems facing America, and suggests tax and budget reform options to address these issues. This discourse includes agreement and disagreement, yet is honestly...

September 8, 2010
C. Eugene Steuerle
Research report

We present new estimates of the budget outlook, based on the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office and the Medicare and Social Security Trustee reports. The medium-term budget outlook has not changed appreciably since earlier this year. Under reasonable assumptions, the federal...

September 16, 2010
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. Gale
Research report

The United States is on a disastrous fiscal path. In the conflict between restoring solvency and stimulating the economy, the president's budget is more focused on the latter. Yet even before the recession Medicare and Medicaid, along with Social Security, accounted for almost 50 percent of...

December 8, 2010
John L. PalmerRudolph G. Penner
Research report

This paper reviews the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy. Although fiscal interventions aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economy have returned to common use, their efficacy remains controversial. This paper reviews the debate...

January 11, 2011
Alan J. AuerbachWilliam G. GaleBenjamin H. Harris
Research report

Unless current policies are reformed, the national debt will continue to grow relative to GDP until a sovereign debt crisis, like those in Ireland and Greece, is inevitable. Although the nation is becoming more concerned about spiraling debt and a presidential fiscal commission and other groups...

February 4, 2011
Rudolph G. Penner
Research report

The United States faces a large medium-term federal budget deficit and an unsustainable long-term fiscal gap. Left unattended, these shortfalls will hobble and eventually cripple the economy. The only plausible way to close the gap is through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases....

March 4, 2011
William G. GaleBenjamin H. Harris
Research report

Many industrialized countries face significant medium-term fiscal deficits and unsustainable long-term fiscal trajectories. The recent fiscal crises in Greece and other countries are a stark reminder of the costs of ignoring these issues. The looming fiscal shortfalls and borrowing requirements...

June 3, 2011
William G. GaleBenjamin H. Harris