This paper gives an overview of the TPC’s methodology for dynamic analysis of tax proposals. Following the practice of official government estimators, we use a Keynesian model to estimate the short-term effects of policy changes on output relative to its full-employment level. That model assumes...

The synthetic control method is an increasingly popular method for state policy evaluation. It provides quantitative support for case studies by creating a synthetic control region that simulates what the outcome path of a region would be if it did not undergo a particular policy intervention....

Territorial tax systems require clear rules to distinguish between taxable domestic and exempt foreign-source income. Defining the source of a multinational company’s profits is difficult, however, especially for profits that are attributable to intangible assets. Shifting of reported profits to...

What makes people perceive their taxes as “fair”? We worked with the news website Vox to produce a short quiz about tax knowledge, which we used to test whether drawing readers’ attention to certain aspects of the tax code changed their opinions about the fairness of their own taxes. We found...

We model taxpayer decisions to realize or delay their capital gains and losses. We use a unique data set of capital asset sales to examine the shifting of gains across time periods with different tax rates, but eliminates the effect of the large pool of accrued gains that enlarge previous...

New information from the Congressional Budget Office allows an update of the fiscal outlook. While deficits are manageable in the short run, the debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms. Under “current policy,” we project the ratio will rise to 96 percent by 2027 and 154...

This paper applies the Schumpeterian view of entrepreneurship to estimate the tax rate on entrepreneurial income under alternative assumptions about the pattern of returns from innovations, the tax rules applied to different types of income (wages, interest, capital gains, dividends, corporate...

Governments are starting to use taxes to discourage consumption of sugary drinks. Those taxes typically scale with drink volume. But sugar content varies widely. This report analyses the potential benefits and costs of scaling these taxes to sugar content. Taxes based on sugar content reduce...

The Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes Act of 2015 requires the IRS to delay tax refunds for taxpayers who claim an earned income tax credit or additional child tax credit on their returns until at least February 15. The delay could help the IRS better check claims for these credits. But this...

This report considers three options for restructuring the home mortgage interest deduction – replacing the deduction with a 15 percent non-refundable interest credit, reducing the ceiling on debt eligible for an interest subsidy to $500,000, and combining the substitution of the credit for the...