The Tax Policy Center has released distributional estimates of the Senate version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed on December 2, 2017. We find the bill would reduce taxes on average for all income groups in both 2019 and 2025. In general, higher income households receive larger average...

The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the Senate Finance Committee on November 16, 2017. We find the legislation would boost US gross domestic product (GDP) 0.7 percent in 2018, have little effect on GDP in 2027, and...

In our research, we examine two alcohol excise tax increases enacted by Illinois in 1999 and in 2009. Using the synthetic control method, we find no evidence that either tax increase reduces fatal alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes for the whole of Illinois, although we do find evidence of a...

Balanced budget requirements (BBRs) prohibit states from spending more than they collect in revenue. This fact sheet describes how BBRs vary in stringency and design and reviews evidence on whether stricter antideficit provisions produce “tighter” state fiscal outcomes, such as reduced spending...

Tax and expenditure limits (TELs) are self-imposed restrictions that state governments create to restrict the amount they can tax or spend. This fact sheet describes how TELs vary across states and discusses evidence on whether TELs achieve their objective of restraining government growth.

Budget stabilization funds (BSFs), also known as rainy day funds, allow states to set aside surplus revenue for times of unexpected revenue shortfall or budget deficit. This fact sheet describes how BSF rules vary across states and reviews evidence on how they affect savings and volatility.

States use different methods to estimate how much revenue they will have available to spend in future years. This fact sheet describes different approaches to revenue forecasting and presents recommendations on how to improve forecasting accuracy and transparency.

Fluctuations in state revenue, especially unexpected ones, can compromise state services and contribute to overall fiscal instability. This fact sheet discusses the causes of state revenue volatility and how state tax and budget policy can either contribute to, or mitigate, it.

Supermajority budget rules require a state to obtain more than a majority vote of the legislature, typically two-thirds or three-fifths of the votes, to pass a budget bill. This fact sheet reviews evidence on how supermajority budget rules affect fiscal outcomes, such as late budgets and...

Although most states produce a budget annually, 20 states produce a budget every other year for the upcoming two fiscal years, or biennially. This fact sheet describes the budget process and reviews the evidence on how annual and biennial budgeting, as well as the line item veto, affect fiscal...