We provide estimates of the federal budget outlook based on new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis. CBO projects a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 percent by fiscal year 2029 under current law, up from 78 percent today. Under a “current policy” scenario similar to CBO’s alternative fiscal...
In this article, Auerbach, Gale, and Krupkin discuss the federal budget outlook, examining long-term debt and the fiscal gap using recently updated data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security and Medicare boards of trustees.
This paper examines the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, the largest tax overhaul since 1986. The new tax law makes substantial changes to the rates and bases of both the individual and corporate income taxes, cutting the corporate income tax rate to 21 percent, redesigning international...
We examine the budget outlook, given new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections that reflect the recently enacted tax bill and spending deals. The prospect of routine trillion-dollar deficits has dominated public response to CBO’s report, but the underlying problem is even more serious....
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 allows owners of certain pass-through businesses (such as sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S corporations) to take a new deduction. However, the structure of the deduction is complicated because its generosity depends on many factors, such as the nature...
Tax cuts often look like “free lunches” for taxpayers, but they eventually have to be paid for with other tax increases or spending cuts. We examine the distributional effects – with and without financing – of both the House and Senate versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. When ignoring...
Policy makers have long sought to boost households’ retirement saving through tax incentives. Little is known, however, about how savers’ contributions are linked across different types of tax-preferred accounts. Previous research has concluded that workers who become eligible for a 401(k) plan...
This brief discusses how savers’ contributions are linked across different types of tax-preferred accounts. Previous research has concluded that workers who become eligible for a 401(k) plan also see stronger growth in IRA balances. However, the mechanism for this increase – contributions, asset...
Tax cuts often look like “free lunches” for taxpayers, but they eventually have to be paid for with other tax increases or spending cuts. We examine the distributional effects – with and without financing – of a tax plan consistent with the outline the Trump Administration produced in April. ...
There is substantial evidence that income inequality in America rose throughout the late 20 th and early 21 st centuries. Influential research by Thomas Piketty,...
Most years, the Tax Policy Center celebrates Valentine Day with a whimsical analysis of the costs and benefits—tax-wise—of marriage. What’s new this year is that...
Congress should eliminate the debt ceiling this year. It serves no useful purpose. It doesn’t contribute to fiscal discipline, and breaching it entails large, potentially,...
Recent analysis by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) shows the impact of several tax pieces included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The...
Debates about corporate income tax cuts follow a familiar script. Republicans claim that rank-and-file workers benefit . Democrats argue that affluent shareholders reap the gains...
Over the past three decades, the United States has gone from taxing roughly half of closely held business (that is, firms other than corporations) and...
The murder of George Floyd, in May 2020, sparked a national reckoning and renewed attention to issues of racial equity and justice. This long-overdue awakening...
As of this morning, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 1.33 percent. The yield on TIPS bonds–which are adjusted for inflation–was negative. These astonishingly...
Last week, Congress and President Trump enacted the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, the largest aid package in American history...
The Congressional Budget Office just projected a series of $1 trillion budget deficits—as far as the eye can see. Narrowing that deficit will require not...
Martin Feldstein, who died earlier this week, was an intellectual giant who transformed modern public finance and tax policy analysis. He also was a kind,...
