Expert

Lucy Dadayan

Principal Research Associate

We are living in a fast-changing environment and facing a multitude of challenges, including an aging population, the changing nature of the workforce, growth in the gig economy, and growing economic and fiscal uncertainties. Thus, state and local government officials are in need of information and tools for deliberations and decisionmaking. At the Urban Institute, I will strive to provide timely data, research, and analysis on state and local fiscal issues. My aim is to help states and localities advance knowledge and make sound fiscal policy decisions.

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Primary tasks

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2021 Quarter 1

States reported strong revenue growth in the first quarter of 2021, but there is still large variation in revenue performance across states. Over a 12-month period (April 2020 through March 2021), state total tax revenues increased 0.6 percent compared to the same...

September 8, 2021

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

Surveying State Leaders on the State of State Taxes

State taxes were upended in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic as governments shut down large parts of the economy. While overall state tax revenues have fared better than expected since then, state leaders have been closely examining existing tax policies and...

July 13, 2021

Lucy Dadayan Kim S. Rueben

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2020 Quarter 4

States reported solid revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, but there is large variation across states and across revenue sources. Over a nine-month period (April through December 2020), state total tax revenues declined 2.2 percent compared to the same...

July 7, 2021

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2020 Quarter 3

States reported robust revenue growth in the third quarter of 2020, a reversal of steep declines in the second quarter that mostly reflects shifting income tax filing deadlines. Over a six-month period (April through September 2020), state revenues declined 2.0...

March 29, 2021

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2020 Quarter 2

States saw steep declines in revenues in the second quarter of 2020, though some of this was caused by shifting revenues into the next quarter and next fiscal year. Consequently, most states ended fiscal year 2020 uncertain about their fiscal bottom line. Many states cut...

December 24, 2020

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

Business Taxes

State Tax and Economic Review, 2020 Quarter 1

State government tax revenues showed year-over-year growth at 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2020. However, preliminary data indicate double-digit declines in state government tax revenues in the second quarter of 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and...

August 25, 2020

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2019 Quarter 4

State tax revenues showed continued growth in the first half of fiscal year 2020. State government tax revenues from major sources showed solid year-over-year growth at 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March...

May 26, 2020

Lucy Dadayan

Brief

State and Local Issues

State Revenue Forecasts Before COVID-19 and Directions Forward

The global pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak will dramatically affect state tax revenues over the next months and possibly years. This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic, as documented in governors’ proposed...

April 2, 2020

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2019 Quarter 3

State and local government tax revenues showed normal growth in the third quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018, much weaker growth in the first quarter of 2019, and robust growth in the second quarter of 2019. Most of the volatility in the prior quarters...

February 24, 2020

Lucy Dadayan

From TaxVox

State Forecasts: Revenues Have Stabilized but Long-Term Questions Remain
February 27, 2024 –
High inflation appears to be giving way to an economic “ soft landing ,” alleviating concerns state forecasters had heading into the current fiscal year...
State and Local Issues
Navigating Fiscal Uncertainty: Weak State Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Year 2024
August 4, 2023 –
With more fiscal data coming in, the long-term health of state budgets looks murky. After a run up in 2022 , preliminary data show a...
State and Local Issues
State Revenue Forecasts Look Bleak as Revenue Boom Subsides
March 14, 2023 –
States saw robust tax revenue growth in fiscal years 2021 and 2022, largely caused by federal and state policy actions. But forecasts now look much...
Understanding Revenue Implications For State Pass-Through-Entity Taxes
January 19, 2023 –
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction managed to survive attempts to reform or scrap...
State and Local Issues
States Forecast Weaker Revenue Growth Ahead of Growing Uncertainties
April 19, 2022 –
Just as state governors and legislators are figuring out how to spend their unexpected budget surpluses, global events could wipe out much of those gains...
The Winners and Losers of Rising Oil Prices
April 1, 2022 –
With gasoline prices spiking, many state legislatures are debating whether to suspend gas taxes in an effort to provide some relief to consumers. But higher...
State and Local Issues
Five Reasons Why States Should Proceed with Caution Despite Soaring Revenues
February 8, 2022 –
Two years into the pandemic, states are flush with cash, a vastly different picture than the 20 percent revenue decline suffered by states in the...
State and Local Issues
What Do State Budget Officials Think About Taxes In The COVID-19 Era?
July 21, 2021 –
While state budgets are recovering along with the US economy, state fiscal policymakers remain cautious about the post COVID-19 future, according to a survey by...
State and Local Issues
Why States and Localities Need More Federal Aid
February 22, 2021 –
Opponents of additional federal aid to state and local governments have noted that overall state revenue declines have not been as bad as expected during...
State and Local Issues
Congress Needs to Understand State Tax Revenue Declines When Drafting COVID-19 Legislation
December 10, 2020 –
Aid for state and local governments remains a sticking point in Congressional deliberations over additional relief to address the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic...
The COVID-19 Effect: State Sales Tax Receipts Shrank $6 billion in May
July 14, 2020 –
May state sales tax receipts shrank by nearly $6 billion, or 21 percent, compared to May 2019, according to data compiled by the Tax Policy...
State and Local Issues
COVID-19 Pandemic Could Slash 2020-21 State Revenues By $200 Billion
July 1, 2020 –
Revised forecast data from 27 states suggest tax revenues are expected to fall $34 billion short of pre-COVID-19 forecasts in fiscal year 2020.
State and Local Issues
COVID-19 And Government Actions Caused State Tax Revenues To Plunge In April
June 1, 2020 –
States and localities across the country are facing an unprecedented fiscal situation from the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Governors are confronting drastically falling...
State and Local Issues
COVID-19 And The Collapsing Job Market
April 16, 2020 –
How rapidly is the economy collapsing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? In just the past four weeks, total weekly unemployment insurance claims were...
State and Local Issues
We Don’t Know If The SALT Cap Is Driving Away Residents Of High-Tax States
February 10, 2020 –
Has the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction included in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act produced a mass migration...
Fiscal 2019 Was A Strong Revenue Year For Most States But 2020 May Be Less Robust
October 14, 2019 –
State revenue growth was strong in fiscal year 2019 (July-June for 46 of the 50 states), but not as robust as in 2018. And temporary...
Tax Day Is Here, And State Budget Offices Share Your Fears And Hopes For A Good Return
April 15, 2019 –
With Tax Day here, taxpayers are scrambling to finish up their returns—both federal and state (that is, if their state has an individual income tax)...
State and Local Issues
State Revenue Picture in Post-TCJA Era: Joy, Sorrow, and Uncertainty
March 12, 2019 –
The Tax Policy Center’s State and Local Finance Initiative’s quarterly “ State Tax and Economic Review ” shows solid revenue growth in the third quarter...
State and Local Issues
States Enjoyed Another Stellar Quarter Of Revenue Growth; But The Longer-Term Fiscal Outlook Is Cloudy
December 18, 2018 –
States closed their fiscal 2018 books at the end of June on a positive note. But they shouldn’t bank on the good times lasting forever...

Experts

Lucy Dadayan

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Primary tasks

From TaxVox