Expert

Lucy Dadayan

Principal Research Associate

We are living in a fast-changing environment and facing a multitude of challenges, including an aging population, the changing nature of the workforce, growth in the gig economy, and growing economic and fiscal uncertainties. Thus, state and local government officials are in need of information and tools for deliberations and decisionmaking. At the Urban Institute, I will strive to provide timely data, research, and analysis on state and local fiscal issues. My aim is to help states and localities advance knowledge and make sound fiscal policy decisions.

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Primary tasks

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2023 Quarter 2

Total state government tax revenue collections declined 12.8 percent in nominal terms and 15.7 percent in real terms in the second quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. The inflation-adjusted growth rates differed significantly across key revenue sources in the second quarter of 2023....

November 21, 2023

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2023 Quarter 1

August 30, 2023

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2022 Quarter 4

Total state government tax revenue collections declined 0.4 percent in nominal terms and 6.4 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier. Revenue growth rates varied considerably among major revenue sources and across states in the fourth quarter of 2022. Real...

May 17, 2023

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2022 Quarter 3

Total state tax revenue collections increased 7.2 percent in nominal terms and 0.1 percent in real terms in the third quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier. This is much weaker than the strong revenue growth observed in the first half of 2022. Both corporate income and general sales tax...

February 23, 2023

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2022 Quarter 2

Total state tax revenue collections increased 14.5 percent in nominal terms and 6.4 percent in real terms in the second quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier. Both personal and corporate income tax revenues saw year-over-year real growth in the second quarter of 2022, at 6.6 and 27.1...

December 13, 2022

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2022 Quarter 1

Total state tax revenue collections increased 21.7 percent in nominal terms and 13.9 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier.

The double-digit growth in state tax revenues is from very volatile sources and is largely attributable to atypical revenue-...

August 23, 2022

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2021 Quarter 4

Total state tax revenue collections increased 24.1 percent in nominal terms and 17.2 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 relative to a year earlier.

Although state revenue collections have grown rapidly in the most recent months and reported revenue growth is widespread...

May 17, 2022

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State Tax and Economic Review, 2021 Quarter 3

The global pandemic caused an unprecedented economic disruption across the nation. But two years in, state and local tax revenues are growing by double digits, much faster than state and local economies. The large gap between growth in revenues versus economic activity is an indication that some...

March 10, 2022

Lucy Dadayan

Research report

State and Local Issues

State Tax and Economic Review, 2021 Quarter 2

State tax revenues saw large swings since the onset of the pandemic, in part because of government actions and behavioral responses to mitigate virus exposure.

States reported strong revenue growth in the second quarter of 2021, but that is largely because of the lower base in 2020. Still...

December 9, 2021

Lucy Dadayan

From TaxVox

State and Local Issues
Navigating Fiscal Uncertainty: Weak State Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Year 2024
August 4, 2023 –
With more fiscal data coming in, the long-term health of state budgets looks murky. After a run up in 2022 , preliminary data show a...
State and Local Issues
State Revenue Forecasts Look Bleak as Revenue Boom Subsides
March 14, 2023 –
States saw robust tax revenue growth in fiscal years 2021 and 2022, largely caused by federal and state policy actions. But forecasts now look much...
Understanding Revenue Implications For State Pass-Through-Entity Taxes
January 19, 2023 –
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction managed to survive attempts to reform or scrap...
State and Local Issues
States Forecast Weaker Revenue Growth Ahead of Growing Uncertainties
April 19, 2022 –
Just as state governors and legislators are figuring out how to spend their unexpected budget surpluses, global events could wipe out much of those gains...
The Winners and Losers of Rising Oil Prices
April 1, 2022 –
With gasoline prices spiking, many state legislatures are debating whether to suspend gas taxes in an effort to provide some relief to consumers. But higher...
State and Local Issues
Five Reasons Why States Should Proceed with Caution Despite Soaring Revenues
February 8, 2022 –
Two years into the pandemic, states are flush with cash, a vastly different picture than the 20 percent revenue decline suffered by states in the...
State and Local Issues
What Do State Budget Officials Think About Taxes In The COVID-19 Era?
July 21, 2021 –
While state budgets are recovering along with the US economy, state fiscal policymakers remain cautious about the post COVID-19 future, according to a survey by...
State and Local Issues
Why States and Localities Need More Federal Aid
February 22, 2021 –
Opponents of additional federal aid to state and local governments have noted that overall state revenue declines have not been as bad as expected during...
State and Local Issues
Congress Needs to Understand State Tax Revenue Declines When Drafting COVID-19 Legislation
December 10, 2020 –
Aid for state and local governments remains a sticking point in Congressional deliberations over additional relief to address the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic...
The COVID-19 Effect: State Sales Tax Receipts Shrank $6 billion in May
July 14, 2020 –
May state sales tax receipts shrank by nearly $6 billion, or 21 percent, compared to May 2019, according to data compiled by the Tax Policy...
State and Local Issues
COVID-19 Pandemic Could Slash 2020-21 State Revenues By $200 Billion
July 1, 2020 –
Revised forecast data from 27 states suggest tax revenues are expected to fall $34 billion short of pre-COVID-19 forecasts in fiscal year 2020.
State and Local Issues
COVID-19 And Government Actions Caused State Tax Revenues To Plunge In April
June 1, 2020 –
States and localities across the country are facing an unprecedented fiscal situation from the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Governors are confronting drastically falling...
State and Local Issues
COVID-19 And The Collapsing Job Market
April 16, 2020 –
How rapidly is the economy collapsing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? In just the past four weeks, total weekly unemployment insurance claims were...
State and Local Issues
We Don’t Know If The SALT Cap Is Driving Away Residents Of High-Tax States
February 10, 2020 –
Has the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction included in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act produced a mass migration...
Fiscal 2019 Was A Strong Revenue Year For Most States But 2020 May Be Less Robust
October 14, 2019 –
State revenue growth was strong in fiscal year 2019 (July-June for 46 of the 50 states), but not as robust as in 2018. And temporary...
Tax Day Is Here, And State Budget Offices Share Your Fears And Hopes For A Good Return
April 15, 2019 –
With Tax Day here, taxpayers are scrambling to finish up their returns—both federal and state (that is, if their state has an individual income tax)...
State and Local Issues
State Revenue Picture in Post-TCJA Era: Joy, Sorrow, and Uncertainty
March 12, 2019 –
The Tax Policy Center’s State and Local Finance Initiative’s quarterly “ State Tax and Economic Review ” shows solid revenue growth in the third quarter...
State and Local Issues
States Enjoyed Another Stellar Quarter Of Revenue Growth; But The Longer-Term Fiscal Outlook Is Cloudy
December 18, 2018 –
States closed their fiscal 2018 books at the end of June on a positive note. But they shouldn’t bank on the good times lasting forever...

Experts

Lucy Dadayan

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From TaxVox