This report describes the Tax Policy Center’s (TPC’s) improved methodology for analyzing the taxation of pass-through income (income generated through business activities that is taxed at the individual level). Under current law, certain types of pass-through income are taxed at different rates...
This chartbook explores the implications of the tax-advantaged treatment of pass-through income enacted as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). Section 199A of the TCJA allows a deduction from taxable income of 20 percent of certain pass-through income. We look specifically at the...
The Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 extends major individual income and estate tax provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. The bill would reduce federal revenues by $631 billion within the budget window (...
The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by Congress. We find the legislation would boost US gross domestic product (GDP) 0.8 percent in 2018 and would have little effect on GDP in 2027 or 2037. The resulting increase in...
The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the Senate on December 2, 2017. We find the legislation would boost US gross domestic product (GDP) 0.7 percent in 2018, have little effect on GDP in 2027, and boost GDP 0.1...
The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the Senate Finance Committee on November 16, 2017. We find the legislation would boost US gross domestic product (GDP) 0.7 percent in 2018, have little effect on GDP in 2027, and...
The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the US House of Representatives on November 16, 2017. We find the legislation would boost US economic output by 0.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, 0.3 percent...
This paper presents estimates of the macroeconomic effects, and resulting dynamic impact on revenues, of the House GOP tax plan announced in June 2016. The estimates were produced in two ways. One set of estimates uses a combination of TPC’s Keynesian model (to project short-run effects on...
This paper gives an overview of the TPC’s methodology for dynamic analysis of tax proposals. Following the practice of official government estimators, we use a Keynesian model to estimate the short-term effects of policy changes on output relative to its full-employment level. That model assumes...
The Coranavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act expansion of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits is likely to cost far more than Congress’s original estimate...
Last week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a letter that reviewed how its revenue forecasts have declined over the past two years. While we...
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) affects the after-tax income of households in two ways: directly through the individual income tax and indirectly through...
In principle, well designed tax cuts can increase US investment and lending by foreigners which can, in turn, increase the aggregate US capital stock and,...
President Trump and his top economic advisers often argue that a major tax reform would permanently boost the nation’s economic growth rate to 3 percent...
A new “dynamic” analysis (one that includes macroeconomic effects) finds that tax cuts consistent with what the Trump Administration outlined in April would reduce federal...
House Republicans are pushing for quick passage of The American Health Care Act (AHCA), which would modify or repeal many aspects of the Affordable Care...
Incorporating the macroeconomic effects of the tax plans of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has little effect on their revenue implications, according to updated analyses...
