Long Run Growth of Social Security (Retirement and Disability) Spending

The Social Security program is composed of the Social Security Retirement program (called the Old Age and Survivors Insurance program or OASI) and the Social Security Disability Program (DI). The retirement portion cost the nation 3.6 percent of GDP (about $492 billion) in 2007 while the disability portion cost 0.7 percent of GDP (about $96 billion) for a total of 4.3 percent of GDP or $588 billion.

Under the Congressional Budget Office's extended baseline (as detailed in their December 2007 Long-Term Budget Outlook report), these two programs will cost 6.5 percent of GDP by 2082, or 50 percent more than their present share (see Chart E).

CBO's "extended baseline" and "alternative fiscal scenario" assumptions do not differ meaningfully.

Underlying data:download