Tax Policy Center

GDP

Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

Has The TCJA Supercharged The Economy? The Data Don’t Show It.

President Trump often says the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has provided “rocket fuel” that will supercharge the US economy. He may, eventually, be right...
May 2, 2018Howard Gleckman
: TaxVox

The Fiscal Picture Is Worse Than It Looks – And It Looks Bad

On the surface, CBO’s new projections of the federal debt and deficits over the next 10 years paint a troubling picture. But, dig deeper and...
April 10, 2018William G. Gale
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms: TaxVox

Taxes and Growth – A Cautionary Graph

The Trump Administration claims that the tax cut going through the House and Senate will significantly boost the overall growth rate of the U.S. economy...
November 28, 2017William G. Gale
: TaxVox

If Tax Cuts Boost Foreign Investment, The Income Boost May Be Moderate

In principle, well designed tax cuts can increase US investment and lending by foreigners which can, in turn, increase the aggregate US capital stock and,...
September 22, 2017Benjamin R. Page
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms: TaxVox

Why We Should Stick With A 10-Year Budget Window

The Congressional Budget Office is always under pressure to do something differently, usually by lawmakers trying to get a more favorable budget score for their...
August 9, 2017Robert McClelland
Campaigns, Proposals, and Reforms: TaxVox

How would candidates’ spending plans affect our GDP projections?

The Tax Policy Center, with the help of the Penn-Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), found that in the short-run Hillary Clinton’s tax increases would slow the...
October 21, 2016Leonard E. Burman
Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

Dynamic Scoring Forum:  Dynamic Scoring Won’t Be Perfect But it is Worth Doing

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring . It is obvious that changes in spending and tax policies affect macroeconomic variables, such as the Gross Domestic Product. The problem is in knowing how much. Different economic models yield very different answers and
February 20, 2015Rudolph G. Penner
Federal Budget and Economy: TaxVox

A "Normal" Budget Isn't Really Normal

Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted , the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of
October 20, 2014Donald Marron