Former CBO director Doug Elmendorf recently argued that Congress should account for macroeconomic feedback when scoring major tax and spending policies. In this brief, Donald Marron agrees, arguing that CBO and JCT can implement such dynamic scoring in an objective, nonpartisan manner. Dynamic...
Many elected officials emphasize reforms that would promote opportunity, but until they define how success would be measured, progress is unlikely. The federal government is scheduled to spend close to $15,000 more per household annually in another 10 years, but little of that increase goes to...
Many elected officials emphasize reforms that would promote opportunity, but until they define how success would be measured, progress is unlikely. The federal government is scheduled to spend close to $15,000 more per household annually in another 10 years, but little of that increase goes to...
A longstanding concern of state and local governments is that a federal value-added tax (VAT) could shrink sales tax bases. But a federal VAT could have even bigger effects on other revenues and spending through changes in incomes, relative prices, and asset values. To illustrate the range of...
Many federal tax reform proposals would eliminate the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Although deficit reduction often is the rationale, there are arguments for eliminating the deduction based on economic efficiency, equity, and improved federal fiscal policy. Eliminating the deduction,...
The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center’s (TPC) microsimulation model produces revenue and distributional estimates of the US federal tax system. This paper describes a reweighting procedure that allows the model to be used for analyzing taxes at the state level. We construct state weights such...
The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center’s (TPC) microsimulation model produces revenue and distributional estimates of the US federal tax system. This paper describes a reweighting procedure that allows the model to be used for analyzing taxes at the state level. We construct state weights such...
States vary in how much governments collect in revenue and spend on goods and services. To understand the sources of these differences, we examined what states could raise (revenue capacity) and would spend (expenditure need) if they followed national averages, taking into account their own...
After worsening sharply during the Great Recession, the long-term fiscal outlook generally improved through 2015, due to a combination of legislative acts and lower projected growth of health care spending. The same factors and the slow but steady economic recovery helped reduce short-term...
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Jeb Bush’s tax proposal. It would reduce individual and business marginal tax rates, curtail tax expenditures, and convert the corporate income tax into a cash-flow consumption tax. The proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, reducing federal...
Thoughts on Dynamic Scoring of Fiscal Policies
Former CBO director Doug Elmendorf recently argued that Congress should account for macroeconomic feedback when scoring major tax and spending policies. In this brief, Donald Marron agrees, arguing that CBO and JCT can implement such dynamic scoring in an objective, nonpartisan manner. Dynamic...
Prioritizing Opportunity for All in the Federal Budget: Executive Summary
Many elected officials emphasize reforms that would promote opportunity, but until they define how success would be measured, progress is unlikely. The federal government is scheduled to spend close to $15,000 more per household annually in another 10 years, but little of that increase goes to...
Prioritizing Opportunity for All in the Federal Budget: A Key to Both Growth in and Greater Equality of Earnings and Wealth
Many elected officials emphasize reforms that would promote opportunity, but until they define how success would be measured, progress is unlikely. The federal government is scheduled to spend close to $15,000 more per household annually in another 10 years, but little of that increase goes to...
Effects of a Federal Value-Added Tax on State and Local Budgets
A longstanding concern of state and local governments is that a federal value-added tax (VAT) could shrink sales tax bases. But a federal VAT could have even bigger effects on other revenues and spending through changes in incomes, relative prices, and asset values. To illustrate the range of...
Revisiting the State and Local Tax Deduction
Many federal tax reform proposals would eliminate the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Although deficit reduction often is the rationale, there are arguments for eliminating the deduction based on economic efficiency, equity, and improved federal fiscal policy. Eliminating the deduction,...
Incorporating State Analysis into the Tax Policy Center's Microsimulation Model: Documentation and Methodology
The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center’s (TPC) microsimulation model produces revenue and distributional estimates of the US federal tax system. This paper describes a reweighting procedure that allows the model to be used for analyzing taxes at the state level. We construct state weights such...
Incorporating State Analysis into the Tax Policy Center's Microsimulation Model: Documentation and Methodology
The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center’s (TPC) microsimulation model produces revenue and distributional estimates of the US federal tax system. This paper describes a reweighting procedure that allows the model to be used for analyzing taxes at the state level. We construct state weights such...
Assessing Fiscal Capacities of States: A Representative Revenue System–Representative Expenditure System Approach, Fiscal Year 2012
States vary in how much governments collect in revenue and spend on goods and services. To understand the sources of these differences, we examined what states could raise (revenue capacity) and would spend (expenditure need) if they followed national averages, taking into account their own...
Once More Unto the Breach
After worsening sharply during the Great Recession, the long-term fiscal outlook generally improved through 2015, due to a combination of legislative acts and lower projected growth of health care spending. The same factors and the slow but steady economic recovery helped reduce short-term...
An Analysis of Governor Bush's Tax Plan
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Jeb Bush’s tax proposal. It would reduce individual and business marginal tax rates, curtail tax expenditures, and convert the corporate income tax into a cash-flow consumption tax. The proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, reducing federal...