Research report

The Congressional Budget Office's midyear update of the economic and budget outlook, released in late August, provides an opportunity to glean new perspectives on the fiscal status of the federal government. In a prior article, we adjusted the baseline projections to provide more appropriate...

October 6, 2003
William G. Gale, Peter Orszag
Research report

In this article from U.S. Fixed Income Monthly, Rudy Penner argues that the political response today to the deteriorating budget situation is much different from the 1980s. In the 1980s and early 1990s, Congress worked vigorously to restore fiscal responsibility. There is little evidence...

November 21, 2003
Rudolph G. Penner
Research report

The Congressional Budget Office (2004) has released new baseline budget projections, covering fiscal years 2005-2014. This article examines the baseline CBO projections, adjusts the official data in ways that more accurately reflect the current trajectory of tax and spending policies, and...

February 16, 2004
Peter Orszag, William G. Gale
Research report

When federal outlays exceed tax receipts, the government typically borrows money from domestic or foreign creditors. When national saving is low relative to national investment, government debt is more likely to be purchased by foreigners. The share of public debt held by foreigners rose from 15...

February 16, 2004
William G. Gale
Research report

Much of the discussion over President Bush's 2004 submission of a proposed budget for fiscal year 2005 and beyond has focused on what it is not. It is not an agenda for major reform. It is not a budget that Congress appears to take seriously, especially given the number of days it is scheduled...

February 16, 2004
C. Eugene Steuerle
Research report

On February 2, the Bush administration released its budget proposals for fiscal years 2005-2009. This article provides initial analysis of the budget, with several interesting conclusions.

February 23, 2004
Peter Orszag, William G. Gale
Research report

The behavior of state and local receipts around the end of a business cycle is historically mixed, but the last three recessions exhibit a common trend: receipts trail expenditures during the recession, and even a year or two afterwards.

March 1, 2004
C. Eugene Steuerle, Adam Carasso
Research report

The president's effort to "leave no child behind" has run into opposition on a variety of fronts. The Congress complained that the money was too little, insisted that the president spend less to reduce the deficit, and then passed the Omnibus Reconciliation and Giveaway Acts of 2003 and 2004. In...

March 1, 2004
C. Eugene Steuerle
Research report

This paper examines the economic impacts of the Bush Administration's proposal to make its recent tax cuts permanent. Making the tax cuts permanent would be regressive and would dig a fiscal hole over the next 75 years that is as big as the combined social security and medicare trust fund...

March 8, 2004
William G. Gale, Peter Orszag
Research report

Congress continues to let the cost of a tax subsidy grow without bound. Perhaps one day Congress will take on the broader issue of entitlement reform, forcing all entitlement programs to go through some of the hurdles required of discretionary programs. Then those programs would be allowed to...

April 12, 2004
C. Eugene Steuerle