Research report

We examine the budget outlook, given new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections that reflect the recently enacted tax bill and spending deals. The prospect of routine trillion-dollar deficits has dominated public response to CBO’s report, but the underlying problem is even more serious....

April 23, 2018
Alan J. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Aaron Krupkin
Research report

Children under age 6 experience the highest rates of poverty of any age group and are particularly vulnerable to poverty’s lasting effects. The child tax credit (CTC) provides a $2,000 per child credit for children under age 17 (along with a credit of up to $500 per dependent 17 and older). But...

April 1, 2018
Elaine Maag, Chye-Ching Huang, Emily Horton, ,
Research report

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) will reduce individual income taxes on average for all income groups and in all states. Unlike prior Tax Policy Center reports, this analysis focuses on the distribution of the individual income tax changes, and does not include changes in the corporate income tax...

March 28, 2018
Frank Sammartino, Philip Stallworth, David Weiner
Research report

Despite its relatively small role in the federal taxation system—accounting for less than 1 percent of revenues—the estate and gift tax is controversial. This paper surveys evidence on the effect of estate and inheritance taxes on entrepreneurship and presents some new evidence. We use the...

March 5, 2018
Leonard E. Burman, Robert McClelland, Chenxi Lu
Research report

This paper provides new estimates of the number and characteristics of same-sex married couples after Supreme Court rulings in 2013 and 2015 established rights to same-sex marriage. Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) subsequently ruled that same-sex spouses would be treated as...

February 28, 2018
Robin Fisher, Geof Gee, Adam Looney
Research report

To respond effectively to state and federal policy changes, city leaders, non-profit service providers, advocates, and researchers all need accurate data on how federal funds flow to local governments. Unfortunately, those data are spread across multiple sources that are often indecipherable or...

February 27, 2018
Megan Randall, Tracy Gordon, Solomon Greene, Erin Huffer
Research report

This exercise is a structured analysis to understand the implications that repealing tax expenditures would have for the overall federal tax system. The baseline tax law for the calculations in this exercise is the law in effect before enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (essentially the Tax...

February 22, 2018
TPC Staff
Research report

Unemployment insurance (UI) helps workers to smooth their consumption after employment loss, but also diminishes their incentive to quickly find new jobs. While both of these considerations have been extensively studied, little or no attention has been paid to possible implications of UI for...

February 8, 2018
Ryan Nunn, Laura Kawano, Ben Klemens
Research report

Tax cuts often look like “free lunches” for taxpayers, but they eventually have to be paid for with other tax increases or spending cuts. We examine the distributional effects – with and without financing – of both the House and Senate versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. When ignoring...

December 8, 2017
William G. Gale, Surachai Khitatrakun, Aaron Krupkin
Research report

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) would reduce tax revenue by nearly $1.5 trillion over the 10-year budget window from FY2018 to FY2027. Analysis by the Tax Policy Center shows that the tax cuts would tilt heavily toward the highest fifth of the income distribution, largely the result of cuts to...

November 28, 2017
Elaine Maag, Julia B. Isaacs