An Updated Analysis of the Candidates' Tax Plans
September 13, 2008

An Updated Analysis of the Candidates’ Tax Plans

TPC has updated its analysis of the presidential candidates’ tax plans to incorporate new budget projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). In January, CBO projected that the federal budget would be in rough balance over the 2009-2018 period. New projections show a deterioration of revenues and faster growth of spending, leading to a projected cumulative budget deficit of $2.3 trillion over the next decade. Our updated analysis combines that budget projection with the effects of the candidates’ tax plans on revenues to show how large federal deficits would be under each plan. (Note that TPC does not try to include proposed spending cuts in its analysis because the candidates have not spelled out in sufficient detail how they would reduce spending.) The simple bottom line: under Senator Obama’s tax plan as described by his campaign advisors, the ten-year federal deficit (before spending cuts) would total nearly $5.9 trillion; a comparable total for Senator McCain’s tax plan is almost $7.4 trillion. Expanding each candidate’s plan to include proposals made in stump speeches yields ten-year deficit totals (again before spending cuts) of $5.4 trillion for Obama and almost $11 trillion for McCain.

A Guide to TPC’s Tables on the Candidates’ Tax Plans. In support of its analysis of the candidates’ tax plans, TPC has posted three sets of tables to its website that show the effects of the tax plans on federal revenues over the coming decade, the distribution of tax changes under each plan, and the effects of the plans on individual and corporate income taxes for representative tax units. To help users find tables they seek, we have posted a guide that includes direct link to each table. The Center plans to post a set of summary tables soon.