What's not being said in presidential candidate's speeches

Author: Anchors Renee Montagne, Steve Inskeep, Reporter Julie Rovner

Published: October 26, 2004

RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Renee Montagne.

STEVE INSKEEP, host:

And I'm Steve Inskeep.

President GEORGE W. BUSH: Thank you all for coming.

(Soundbite of crowd cheering)

INSKEEP: President Bush gave a stump speech last week in New Port Richey, near the Gulf Coast of Florida.

Pres. BUSH: If you're looking for sunshine, Florida's the place to come.

(Soundbite of crowd cheering)

Pres. BUSH: I'm looking for votes, and Florida's the place to come.

(Soundbite of crowd cheering)

INSKEEP: We've been researching what the president said in that speech. We also looked into a speech by Senator Kerry the day before. He spoke on the other side of Florida, in West Palm Beach.

Senator JOHN KERRY (Democratic Presidential Nominee): And you all have a right to expect that the promises are going to be kept. And I know, as you look at me, you're trying to look right through me and say, `Can I trust this fellow?'

INSKEEP: Here, we're providing excerpts of both candidates' speeches with footnotes. We're adding some facts that the candidates missed. For instance, both candidates spoke about Social Security. The popular retirement program is expected to run short of money as millions of baby boomers start retiring. In his speech in Florida, Senator Kerry promised to preserve it.

Sen. KERRY: Let me tell you something, Franklin Roosevelt put that together, it's worked all these years. Americans have a right to count on the money that they've got coming to them and I will never privatize Social Security. I will never lower the benefits and I will never raise the retirement age.

INSKEEP: An independent expert notes that Kerry has also promised not to raise taxes for any but the wealthiest Americans. With all those promises, Eugene Steuerle of The Urban Institute says the Democrat has left himself with few options.

Mr. EUGENE STEUERLE (The Urban Institute) : It leaves reinterpreting the definition of what it means to raise the retirement age, cut benefits and raise taxes. If you project out a few decades into the future, we've promised that all revenues collected by government will go only for elderly programs. And this is an unsustainable promise and it means something's got to give somewhere.

INSKEEP: President Bush promoted his own Social Security proposal in the speech that we're examining. He would allow people to invest some of their Social Security payments.

Pres. BUSH: We must allow younger workers to save some of their own payroll taxes in a personal savings account that earns better interest, a personal savings account they call their own and an account the government cannot take away.

INSKEEP: That's a popular idea but Eugene Steuerle says the change could cost many billions of dollars.

Mr. STEUERLE: In campaign time, candidates are famous for only telling us how we're going to be winners, so the president wants to tell us we'll have individual accounts but he doesn't want to tell us how we're going to pay for it.

INSKEEP: The president did not explain how he would manage the cost when he spoke in New Port Richey, Florida. In that speech, the president did talk about his health-care plans. He also critiqued Senator Kerry's proposals.

Pres. BUSH: The senator has a health-care proposal of his own, a plan of bigger and more intrusive government. The other day, he tried to tell Americans that when it comes to his health-care plan, and I quote, "The government has nothing to do with it." I could barely contain myself.

INSKEEP: That's no wonder, since Kerry was contradicting one of the president's favorite applause lines.

Pres. BUSH: My opponent wants to move in the direction of government-run health care. I believe health decisions should be made by doctors and patients, not by officials in Washington, DC.

(Soundbite of crowd cheering)

INSKEEP: We had a non-partisan expert listen to that warning about government-run health care.

Mr. JACK MEYER (Economic and Social Research Group): I think this is unwarranted.

INSKEEP: That's Jack Meyer of the Economic and Social Research group in Washington. He says Kerry's plan would not lead to a government takeover; although, it would expand existing subsidies. The money would help people to buy insurance from private companies.

Mr. MEYER: Yes, Senator Kerry's plan would add significantly to costs because it would cover more people than President Bush's plan. Independent estimates seem to agree that the senator's plan would cover about 27 million of the more than 40 million uninsured. That's about four times as many, at least, as President Bush's approach would.

INSKEEP: To finance his plan, Senator Kerry is promising to roll back tax cuts for the wealthy. At the same time, Kerry has been promising to find savings in some areas of health-care spending. In his Florida speech, Kerry accused President Bush of wasting money by failing to negotiate better prices from drug companies.

Sen. KERRY: He said no to the taxpayer and yes to the drug companies and now they're getting a $139 billion windfall profit and you see a 17 percent increase in Medicare premiums. Not when I'm president of the United States, ladies and gentlemen. We're going to both purchase and we're going to lower the cost of Medicare prescription drugs to seniors.

INSKEEP: NPR's Julie Rovner looked into Kerry's charge and the startling figures that support it.

JULIE ROVNER reporting:

Well, the fact is that the president did support the drug industry in not having the federal government negotiate prices for Medicare prescription drugs the way the government negotiates prices for drugs under the Veterans Administration, so that part is true. Whether the windfall profit for the drug industry is going to be $139 billion, which was a calculation made by a couple of professors at Boston University, is not at all clear, but there will certainly be more money for the drug companies than there would have been had the Democrats prevailed in having the government negotiate those prices.

INSKEEP: What about when John Kerry says that this problem has caused Medicare premiums to go up 17 percent?

ROVNER: Well, Medicare premiums are going up 17 percent next year but it has nothing to do with prescription drug prices. The prescription drug benefit under Medicare doesn't start until 2006. The main reasons for the 17 percent increase for next year are an increase in payments to doctors and an increase in payments to managed care organizations, HMOs. And, in fact, Senator Kerry supported both of those increases, even though he did not support the Medicare bill.

INSKEEP: Both candidates have fiercely debated domestic issues, but both know that national security issues may decide the election. In his speech on Florida's Gulf Coast, President Bush worked to raise doubts about John Kerry's leadership.

Pres. BUSH: His vote against supporting our troops in combat is part of a pattern. He opposed the B-1 bomber, he opposed the B-2 stealth bomber, he opposed modernization of the F-14 D, all of which helped us secure our country in Afghanistan and Iraq. He opposed the Apache helicopter, he opposed the Patriot missile system. My opponent has built a 20-year record of military weakness.

Unidentified Man: Tell 'em, tell 'em, Mr. President!

INSKEEP: On the tape, you can faintly hear somebody in the crowd of Bush supporters yelling, `Tell 'em Mr. President.' But the president did not quite tell them all of his opponent's record in the Senate. Michael O'Hanlon is a defense analyst for the Brookings Institution.

Mr. MICHAEL O'HANLON (Brookings Institution): Kerry did not vote against those weapons with any particular precision. In his 20 years in the Senate, 17 times he supported the defense bill and three times he opposed it, which means, in effect, that at the end of the day, 17 times he voted for every single weapon that we deploy and three times he voted against virtually every single weapon that we deploy.

INSKEEP: O'Hanlon is a Kerry supporter but has criticized Kerry on some issues. He's also been listening to the debate over another national security question which President Bush raised in his speech last week.

Pres. BUSH: We will not have a draft. We will have an all-volunteer Army.

INSKEEP: A few days before, John Kerry told a newspaper that the president's policies created great potential for a draft. His statement came amid widespread rumors about a draft. Michael O'Hanlon argues that Kerry was justified to warn about the strain on today's military, but as for a draft...

Mr. O'HANLON: The chances of a draft under either one in the short term are virtually zero. Neither one would have any intention of going to that option unless it was a truly last resort.

INSKEEP: The House of Representatives overwhelmingly defeated a plan for a draft just last month by a vote of 402-to-2.

Pres. BUSH: For four more years. God bless. Thank you for coming.

INSKEEP: Beyond the facts they presented, both candidates ended their stump speeches with emotional appeals. President Bush spoke of the days after September 11th. John Kerry spoke of the need for change in the White House.

Sen. KERRY: Thank you. And God bless you all.

INSKEEP: One week from today, Americans will conclude a dramatic election with dramatic issues at stake. But as they campaign neither candidate is able to resist making the issues just a bit more dramatic than they really are.

We've done several reports like this and you want to find more reports examining the candidates campaign claims go to npr.org. You can also go to our Web site to join NPR's Linda Wertheimer for a live online chat about the presidential election, tomorrow at noon Eastern.

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INSKEEP: It's 11 minutes before the hour.