Running the political numbers Bush campaigned as a 'compassionate conservative' in 2000, but big deficits rankle fiscal conservatives; others question the compassion of his priorities

Author: Judy Keen

Published: February 3, 2004

WASHINGTON -- The federal spending plan released Monday by President Bush is making some critics wonder whether he'll campaign this year, as he did in 2000, as a "compassionate conservative."

Bush's $ 2.4 trillion budget for fiscal year 2005 may make it harder for him to claim that label. Contrary to conservative doctrine, government spending has grown steadily during his White House tenure, and deficits have replaced surpluses. And to offset big increases in spending on the military and homeland security, Bush has cut dozens of programs that affect Americans' daily lives, including community policing, housing for low-income people and projects to control water pollution.

Critics point out:

• Increased spending on defense and homeland security mean the federal budget deficit won't disappear for years. This year, the deficit is expected to be a record $ 521 billion. When Bush took office, he inherited a record surplus of $ 230 billion.

Growth in overall spending and the forecasts of shortfalls infuriate conservatives who believe that deficits hurt the economy and that spending more than the government brings in is reckless. And that's before some pricey items that Bush won't propose until later. Money for military operations next year in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a plan to let workers invest some of their Social Security withholdings, could drive the deficit higher.

• To keep spending from growing even more, Bush proposed ending 65 programs and reducing 63 others. That's out of thousands of government programs, but small-business, transportation and environmental programs would be among the hardest hit. "Compassion is in the rhetoric, not in the numbers," says William Gale, an economic analyst at the Brookings Institution, a liberal-leaning think tank.

Spending for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would drop $ 408 million, or 8.9%. The Environmental Protection Agency's programs would be cut 7.2%.

On the other hand, Bush is proposing an extra $ 1 billion for poor school districts and $ 1 billion more for disabled students. And he'd increase cleanup funds 9.9% for the most polluted "Superfund" industrial sites and 30% for less-contaminated "brownfields."

But critics are using Bush's cuts, and freezes in other programs, to charge that he's punishing regular Americans to help the wealthiest by making his tax cuts permanent.

"This budget exposes priorities that are out of touch," says Gene Sperling, who was an economic adviser to President Clinton. "The fundamental political goal of this budget is to shift focus away from the true causes of the deficit explosion: excessive tax cuts."

Bush sees things differently. "Our nation remains at war," he said in his budget message. "We will continue to provide whatever it takes to defend our country." Because of that imperative, Budget Director Josh Bolten says, "sacrifice across the board" is necessary in other parts of the budget.

The budget, written with the election in mind, is an outline of how Bush believes government should be run:

• Cut taxes. Bush wants to make the tax cuts enacted since he took office permanent. They would cost $ 2 trillion over the next 10 years. Voters like tax cuts.
  
  Bush believes tax cuts are fueling the economic recovery and will lead to the creation of more jobs. But his budget projects that the national unemployment rate, which was 5.7% in December, will remain above 5% through 2009.
• Propose big things, even if they're expensive. A prescription-drug benefit for people on Medicare was a campaign promise in 2000 and something Bush will boast about to voters this year. The cost of the 10-year program, originally set at $ 400 billion, will be $ 534 billion, the administration said last week.
  
  Bush's plan to return Americans to the moon and eventually to Mars means a 6% increase in NASA's budget next year. His advisers believe voters want a visionary president with grand ideas, but future deficits may make it difficult for him to propose spending enough to fulfill this vision.
• Promote values. Bush wants to spend $ 270 million, double the current budget, to urge teens to abstain from sex. A $ 240 million program would promote marriage to limit out-of-wedlock births. He also wants $ 120 million for research on promoting marriage and $ 50 million to advocate responsible fatherhood.
• Postpone difficult decisions. Bush's budget delays until after the election his proposals to revamp Social Security and Medicare, most of the spending on his Mars initiative and a request for $ 50 billion for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Bush says his budget puts the government on a path to cut the deficit in half in five years, but even his supporters say that won't be easy. "He's going to have to make some very tough choices," says Alison Fraser, a budget analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

Bush is betting that Americans share his view that the budget crunch is not entirely his fault. "The reason we are where we are is because we went through a recession, we were attacked and we're fighting a war. Those are high hurdles for a budget and for a country to overcome," he told his Cabinet on Monday.

His comments suggested that he hopes voters also will give Congress responsibility -- or blame -- for spending cuts and deficits. "We're calling upon Congress to be wise with the taxpayers' money," he said.

But the spending plan released Monday is Bush's alone. His imprint is literally underscored by his image: There are 28 photos of Bush in the 402-page main budget proposal. Last year, there were five.