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Publications By Type
Document Type: Research Report
Considerations in Efforts to Restructure Work-Based Credits (Research Report)
Author(s):
Steve Holt , Elaine Maag
The Internal Revenue Code has replaced traditional means-tested programs as the principal means for transferring income to low earners. The largest vehicle is the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), now supplemented by both the Child Tax Credit (CTC) and the Making Work Pay tax credit (MWP).
This paper looks at the system's evolution, the important role played by the tax system in assisting low earners, and the complexities presented by the current approach. It offers principles to guide the design of a worker credit and child benefit that would replace the EITC, CTC, and MWP, along with a specific proposal.
Published: 11/09/09
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The Individual Alternative Minimum Tax: Historical Data and Projections, Updated October 2009 (Research Report)
Author(s):
Katherine Lim , Jeff Rohaly
The alternative minimum tax (AMT), which originally targeted high-income taxpayers, requires annual legislation to prevent it from affecting millions of middle-income individuals each year. There are two primary reasons for the AMT’s broadening impact; its parameters are not indexed for inflation and the 2001-2006 tax cuts reduced regular tax liability without changing AMT liability. In 2009, four million taxpayers will pay $33.5 billion in AMT, but without congressional action that number will rise to 27 million owing $102 billion in 2010. This paper describes the AMT and provides TPC’s latest estimates of AMT coverage, revenue, and distribution.
Published: 10/05/09
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Activist Fiscal Policy to Stabilize Economic Activity (Research Report)
Author(s):
Alan J. Auerbach , William G. Gale
Facing the most severe recession since the 1930s, and probably the longest as well, the
U.S. government has adopted an aggressive countercyclical fiscal policy stance, beginning with the “Economic Stimulus Act of 2008” in February of that year, shortly after the recession’s designated starting date, and followed one year later by the much larger “American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act of 2009.” These two bills, adopted under different presidents, both contained temporary tax rebates for households and temporary investment incentives for firms, indicating at least limited bipartisan acceptance of these approaches to countercyclical stimulus.
Published: 08/24/09
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The Distribution of Federal Taxes, 2009-12 (Research Report)
Author(s):
Rachel M. Johnson , Jeff Rohaly
Overall, the federal tax system is progressive. On average, households with higher incomes pay taxes that are a larger share of their income. But barring legislative action, the numerous sunsets and phase-ins that Congress has written into the tax code will result in a tax system that is in a state of flux over the next few years. As a result, current law dictates significant changes in the degree of progressivity in the federal tax system between now and 2012. This paper summarizes the Tax Policy Center's latest estimates of the distribution of federal taxes for 2009 through 2012.
Published: 08/21/09
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Mitigating the Potential Inequity of Reducing Corporate Rates (Occasional Paper)
Author(s):
Dan Halperin
Some tax proposals would reduce the marginal corporate tax rate. Others would boost the top individual rate. Although a differential between corporate and individual rates could reduce the overall tax on distributed corporate income, it could also enable higher-income taxpayers to shelter income from taxation. This paper explains how denying the lower corporate rate to income from services and passive investments combined with provisions that prevent people from permanently escaping tax on retained earnings would mitigate this problem.
Published: 07/29/09
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Distributional Effects of Tax Expenditures (Research Report)
Author(s):
Benjamin H. Harris , Katherine Lim , Eric Toder
The largest tax preferences for housing, health care, and retirement saving reduce federal revenues by about 3 percent of GDP. They raise after-tax income proportionally more for higher income groups than lower income groups, but raise income proportionately less for those at the very top. The net distributional effects depend on how these tax preferences are financed. If paid for with higher marginal tax rates, they benefit upper-middle income taxpayers at the expense of both lower-income and the highest-income taxpayers, but if paid for by lower per-capita spending, all high-income groups gain and all low-income groups lose.
Published: 07/21/09
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An Update on the Economic Crisis and the Fiscal Crisis: 2009 and Beyond (Research Report)
Author(s):
Alan J. Auerbach , William G. Gale
his paper reviews recent economic events and their impact on U.S. fiscal performance and prospects. We highlight the historic nature of the 2009 budget outcomes, the unsustainability of plausible ten-year budget projections, and the increasingly dire long-term fiscal problem. These conditions leave federal policy makers with difficult choices. Over the next several years, as the recession ends and the economy recovers, policy makers will face a delicate balancing act between encouraging economic recovery and establishing fiscal sustainability. Even if a successful recovery ensues, however, medium-term and long-term fiscal problems have become increasingly urgent.
Published: 06/25/09
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Do We Need a Value-Added Tax to Solve Our Long-Run Budget Problems? (Occasional Paper)
Author(s):
Rudolph G. Penner
The U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path. That is because Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which together constituted almost one half of noninterest spending before the recent stimulus plan, are all growing faster than tax revenues. If these programs are not reformed, tax burdens raised, or other spending decimated, deficits and the national debt will explode. It is difficult to imagine solving the entire budget problem by slowing spending growth, because benefits would then be far below those previously promised. It is equally unlikely that tax increases could solve the whole problem because the tax burden would then be so far above any ever experienced by Americans. To the extent that tax burdens are to be increased, there are three options. Tax rates could be raised in the existing system, but that would be extremely inefficient. Tax reform might raise revenues more efficiently, but that is excruciatingly difficult politically. That leaves the possibility of a brand new tax and a VAT is a very likely candidate.
Published: 06/23/09
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The Future of Long-Term Care: What Is Its Place in the Health Reform Debate? (Research Report)
Author(s):
Howard Gleckman
More than 10 million Americans require long-term care supports and services. Yet the system for delivering and paying for this assistance is deeply flawed. While most of the frail elderly and those with disabilities prefer assistance at home, many must live in nursing homes to receive Medicaid benefits, care coordination for those with multiple chronic illnesses is poor, and the system for financing care impoverishes many middle-income families. The national health reform debate allows policymakers to reconsider long-term care as well. This paper assesses proposals to restructure the delivery and financing of long-term care services.
Published: 06/15/09
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Extending the EITC to Noncustodial Parents: Potential Impacts and Design Considerations (Occasional Paper)
Author(s):
Laura Wheaton , Elaine Sorensen
This paper examines the noncustodial parent earned income tax credit (NCP EITC), a new type of credit recently enacted in New York and Washington, D.C. and proposed by Senator Bayh and then-Senator Obama in 2007. The NCP EITC offers an earned income tax credit to low-income noncustodial parents who work and pay their full child support. This paper describes the rationale for this policy and provides national estimates of the benefits and costs of an NCP EITC under three alternative policy scenarios. It also discusses several key design and implementation issues.
Published: 06/12/09
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