The U.S. faces a large medium-term federal budget deficit and an unsustainable long-term fiscal gap. Left unattended, these shortfalls will hobble and eventually cripple the economy. The only plausible way to close the gap is through a combination of spending cuts and/or tax increases. This...
We provide new estimates of the federal budget outlook over 10-year and long-term horizons under three sets of assumptions: the Congressional Budget Office baseline, which assumes no changes in current law; an extended policy scenario, in which it is assumed that future Congresses act more or...
William Gale and Benjamin Harris give the president a B, noting their approval of the administration's aggressive use of tax and fiscal policy in pursuing the paramount goal of saving the economy-but also concern about the resulting lack of progress in efforts to reform the tax and fiscal system...
The Volcker task force on tax reform, part of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, faces a daunting task that is made materially more difficult by ex ante constraints placed on its purview and recommendations. Broad-based reform proposals seem to be out of the question, and...
CNNMoney.com, Op-Ed.
Obama and other policymakers need to pay more attention to a fundamental conflict underlying the health care debate: People want the federal government to do much more than they are willing to pay for through their taxes.
Facing the most severe recession since the 1930s, and probably the longest as well, the
U.S. government has adopted an aggressive countercyclical fiscal policy stance, beginning with the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 in February of that year, shortly after the recessions designated...
Los Angeles Times op-ed, July 8, 2009. In the immediate future, policymakers will face a delicate balancing act between encouraging economic recovery and establishing fiscal sustainability. Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale examine the economic challenges facing the U.S.
This paper reviews recent economic events and their impact on U.S. fiscal performance and prospects. We highlight the historic nature of the 2009 budget outcomes, the unsustainability of plausible ten-year budget projections, and the increasingly dire long-term fiscal problem. These conditions...
In 2009, the federal deficit will be larger as a share of the economy than at any time since the 1940s. After 2009, we project an average deficit of $1 trillion per year for the next 10 years, under optimistic assumptions. The longer-run picture is even bleaker, with a fiscal gap of 7-9 percent...
There is substantial evidence that income inequality in America rose throughout the late 20 th and early 21 st centuries. Influential research by Thomas Piketty,...
Most years, the Tax Policy Center celebrates Valentine Day with a whimsical analysis of the costs and benefits—tax-wise—of marriage. What’s new this year is that...
Congress should eliminate the debt ceiling this year. It serves no useful purpose. It doesn’t contribute to fiscal discipline, and breaching it entails large, potentially,...
Recent analysis by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) shows the impact of several tax pieces included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The...
Debates about corporate income tax cuts follow a familiar script. Republicans claim that rank-and-file workers benefit . Democrats argue that affluent shareholders reap the gains...
Over the past three decades, the United States has gone from taxing roughly half of closely held business (that is, firms other than corporations) and...
The murder of George Floyd, in May 2020, sparked a national reckoning and renewed attention to issues of racial equity and justice. This long-overdue awakening...
As of this morning, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 1.33 percent. The yield on TIPS bonds–which are adjusted for inflation–was negative. These astonishingly...
Last week, Congress and President Trump enacted the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, the largest aid package in American history...
The Congressional Budget Office just projected a series of $1 trillion budget deficits—as far as the eye can see. Narrowing that deficit will require not...
Martin Feldstein, who died earlier this week, was an intellectual giant who transformed modern public finance and tax policy analysis. He also was a kind,...